Player Props: Week 11
After a brutal Week 10 that saw me only hit on one of my five recommendations I’m looking for redemption and know I’ve got to step up my game in Week 11. I’m now way to close to .500 on the season at 31 wins and 27 losses. That record makes for a mediocre 53% winning percentage. I’ve done my homework and I’ve got five more player prop bets that I like this week and that I’m willing to share with you.
Please remember that gambling is super risky and you should only use funds that you can afford to lose.
Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos
Over 2.5 receptions
Vele played his highest percentage of offensive snaps last week (66%) and he had four catches. It was the second week in a row that Vele’s offensive snaps played percentage increased. I’m hoping that trend continues in Week 11 against the Falcons who have given up the fourth most receptions to WRs over the past five weeks. If it does, I think he hits the over on his receptions prop.
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 229.5 passing yards
You have to give Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin credit because using Wilson as his starting QB starting in Week 7 was the right move! He’s averaging 245.66 passing yards per game in the three games he’s played this season. He has a great matchup against the Ravens who are giving up an average of 324.8 passing yards to QBs in their last five games.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 70.5 receiving yards
Let’s pick on the Ravens’ pass defense some more. They’re giving up the most receiving yards to WRs (1,992) this season. That’s 200 yards more than the Lions, who own the next worst passing defense. Since Russell Wilson took over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback in Week 7 Pickens is averaging 4.7 receptions and 92 receiving yards per game.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins
Over 3.5 receptions
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill will be active in Week 11 but he revealed that he’s been nursing a wrist injury that he’s been dealing with since the preseason. He’s been playing through the pain and doesn’t have an injury designation for Week 11 but according to recent reports the pain associated with the injury is getting progressively worse and that Hill will eventually need surgery. Kudos to Hill for playing through the pain but his targets per game have decreased for two straight weeks. If that trend continues, Smith could see a bigger share of the targets moving forward. Smith is averaging 4.8 catches per games in his last five games and the Las Vegas Raiders are giving up just over eight receptions per game to TEs in their last four games.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Anytime TD scorer
With Henry scoring at least one TD in every game so far this season picking him to score another one in Week 11 is either an easy bet or a case of pushing my luck. I do have a telling stat to backup this recommendation. The Steelers have given up six rushing TDs to RBs in their last four games. Henry will score at least one more TD in Week 11.