Player Props: Week 4
I only hit on four of my eight suggestions last week but come on, how was I supposed to know that Rashid Shaheed wouldn’t make a single catch in Week 3? I’m going to try and keep it simple this week (you’ve heard of the KISS approach, right) and just use some plain old common sense. Not sure if that’s going to help me make better picks in Week 4 but maybe it’ll help me in my personal life. I’ve got @fightingchance breathing down my neck demanding that I make better picks so let’s see how it goes this week. Wish me luck!!
Please remember that gambling is super risky and you should only use funds that you can afford to lose.
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints
Over 0.5 rushing yards
One of my wins last week was picking Jared Goff to rush for more than 0.5 yards and this line for Carr is my play of the week. Like Goff, Carr isn’t known as a running QB but he has rushed for at least one yard in each of his three games this season. Also, I know they’ve played QBs that can run the ball but the Atlanta Falcons, Carr’s opponent in Week 4, have given up the most rushing yards to the position this season. Carr should be able to fall forward for one yard on one play this week shouldn’t he?
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 64.5 rushing yards
With Jaylen Warren already out for this game against the Indianapolis Colts, Harris will have the Steelers backfield all to himself in Week 4. The Colts give up the second most rushing yards to the RB position and Harris has already rushed for at least 69 yards in each of his first three games of the season. Seems like stars are aligned for Harris to hit the over for this prop.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Over 59.5 yards rushing yards
I’m going all in on this Aaron Jones revenge game narrative against the Packers. Jones has had a spring in his step all season and probably circled this game on the calendar as soon as he signed with the Vikings. The Packers are giving up five yards per carry to RBs and I think Jones will easily hit the over on this one.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Over 2.5 receptions
The less risky and even more logical play would be to take Eagles TE Dallas Goedert to catch more than 5.5 passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. However, with A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and even Britain Covey (on short term IR) out this week, the Eagles are desperately thin at WR. Dotson has supposedly been running better routes and getting open recently, so this could be his breakout game for the 2024 season. The Eagles will definitely lean on Goedert this week and he’ll probably catch more than 5.5 passes, but he’s a bit of a risky pick since the Bucs have given up the second fewest receptions to TEs (7) this season. With the Eagles having to throw some balls to their WRs on Sunday, Dotson, and even Parris Campbell (over/under 2.5 receptions) are going to see an uptick in targets this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Anytime TD scorer
Harrison is showing everyone why he deserved to be the number one pick in this year’s NFL draft. He has scored three TDs in his last two games and faces a Washington Commanders pass defense that’s given up the most scores (9) to the WR position. Harrison should make it a hat trick and find paydirt in his third straight game in Week 4.