Favorite NHL Bet for January 19, 2021

You can find me on Twitter @DanH720.

1. COL to Win V.S. LAK in regulation, -129 on DK Sportsbook.

I'm going to keep this short and sweet and hope you read this finding this line not any worse than -150, as that as about as far as I would go in terms of juice/rake for favorites in NHL. Thus why I am not firing on big favorites(COL is -200 or worse as I write this) and will look elsewhere and thought this matchup tomorrow a prime example of doing just that.

We are seeing sharp and big money coming in on the Colorado moneyline at this point, though I do not have exact numbers at this moment(example would be 40% of bets but 95% of the $), we also have another trend working in our favor here, road teams well rested as favorites showing a 64% win rate and 11% ROI, posting a 526-301 record over that sample, which goes way back(2005).

Though I am well aware that the Kings possess the best farm system in the entire NHL, they are still a team that will struggle to contain and slow down this Avalanche team which comes in humming off a 8-0 thrashing of the Blues. 

This is the clear play here to get on the Colorado side of this nice matchup Tuesday night in Los Angeles.  I'd be fine playing this all way down to -150. I'm also very comfortable firing the Colorado puck line of -1.5 at +125 for a half unit play, though it is not as safe in my opinion. Otherwise, if the Kings get a flukey one early, I might be willing to fire a live on Colorado at plus money as well, especially if you find this has moved further down than -150.

This is my favorite play I see for tomorrow as of 11:22pm EST Monday night.


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