Five Game Parlay: Week 11
Four games separate first place from last place, and this is the closest the Five Game Parlay has been this late into the season in a long time. Drake took it on the chin for probably the first time all season and allowed Ryan to sneak into first by a half game. This one still is truly anyone’s game so let’s get to the standings and the picks.
Ryan 28-21-1 (2–2-1)
Gary 28-22 (2-3)
Drake 27-23 (1-4)
Steve 25-25 (3-2)
Joe 24-25-1 (2-2-1)
New England Patriots -3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles just don’t have the weapons to keep up with the Patriots, especially with Alshon Jeffery out of the game. So a rookie running back and a couple of tight ends are supposed to supply enough offense to beat the Patriots defense? Nah, bro. Just nah.
Oakland Raiders –10 over Cincinnati Bengals. The Raiders have been a joke of the NFL for the better part of a decade, but they have been playing much better of late and the punchline is now the winless Bengals. The Raiders defense isn’t great, but has been playing better of late, and rookie Josh Jacobs should outscore the Bengals by himself.
Carolina Panthers -5.5 over Atlanta Falcons. Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore should singlehandedly destroy the Falcons lowly defense in this one. Atlanta scored a huge upset last week against the Saints, but even the sun shines on a dog’s ass here and there. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. It won’t happen again and the Panthers win by ten.
New York Jets +1 over Washington Redskins. I despise the Jets with every fiber of my being. Not as much as I hate the Seahawks, but it isn’t far off. However, even they shouldn’t lose to the Redskins with an absolutely unprepared quarterback. The only way the Jets lose this game is if Sam Darnold commits three turnovers or more and Adrian Peterson has a field day. That is possible, but I am going to take the Jets anyway.
San Francisco 49ers -11.5 over Arizona Cardinals. No Kittle, no Sanders, no problem! The Cardinals played the Niners really tough at home two weeks ago, but San Francisco is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Seahawks and will look to rebound in a big way this week. Let’s not forget how bad the Cardinals defense is and the combination of Tevin Coleman and Deebo Samuel should be enough for San Francisco to win this one by two touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints -5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After last week’s implosion by the Saints, I expect them to come out hot and attempt to decimate the Bucs. Even with Marshon Lattimore expected to be out for the game, the Saints defense still has enough playmakers to force some Winston turnovers and allow Brees, Thomas, and Kamara to do their thing. If the Saints can’t win this game by six points we should be thinking hard about their place atop the NFC, or at least where many people have placed them there.
New York Jets +1 over Washington Redskins. This is my most unconventional pick, but I just think the Redskins are terrible and have no faith in Dwayne Haskins to win a game. Even though this game will be a slug fest in the trenches, I do believe Darnold can string together enough drives with Bell, Crowder, and Griffin to get a couple touchdowns. Not sure I have that same belief in Haskins.
New England Patriots -3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles. This Patriots team should be able to take advantage of the Eagles weak secondary. I don’t think this is a game where Sony Michel will be relied upon, rather a healthy dose of White, Edelman, and Sanu should be more than enough to run up the score on the Eagles. Additionally, the Eagles only have Ertz and Goedert as trust pass catchers for Wentz, with even Jordan Howard banged up or possibly out for this game. This won’t be a repeat of the Foles Superbowl.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Los Angeles Chargers. This game will probably be pretty close, but ultimately I am not sure the Chargers defense will be able to contain Mahomes. After last week’s ridiculous loss the Titans I would be nervous to go up against a Chiefs team needing to reassert themselves as AFC favorites. I would probably feel more comfortable with a -3.5 line, but I’m still going to with the Chiefs and that offense.
Baltimore Ravens -4 over Houston Texans. At this point in the season I am not sure any team I wouldn’t take the Ravens -4 against. While they may not be the best team in the NFL, they are firing on all cylinders and I just don’t think the Texans defense can stop the Ravens offense. So if the Texans wants to be close in this game they will need Watson to play pretty flawlessly, and I’m not sure he will be able to do that. Should Will Fuller be active I would have some more faith in the Texans, but still not enough to change my pick… Lamar has been the highlight of the 2019 season, and is just so damn fun to watch.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Los Angeles Chargers. The KC defense can't stop the run. The Chargers have no offensive line left. Something has to give in Mexico. Mahomes and the Chiefs simply overwhelm the Chargers and cover the 4 with ease.
Arizona Cardinals +11.5 over San Francisco 49ers. This is a large line when San Francisco is so beat up. Without Kittle, Breida, and potentially Sanders this 49ers offense is extremely limited. I can see their lack of firepower keeping Arizona in this game.
Buffalo Bills -6 over Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen has a great history against the Dolphins and I can't see that changing on Sunday. Another two rushing score week for the Wyoming product as the Bills cover (barely).
Oakland Raiders -10 over Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy is awful. Hot garbage is too kind of description. They were getting blown out last week and still gave Joe Mixon 30 carries. They have zero chance here. Fire up all your Raiders.
Minnesota Vikings -10.5 over Denver Broncos. I'm uneasy taking a Minnesota team without Adam Thielen at this spread. Denver though has very little offense with Brandon Allen at the helm. Major challenge for the Denver O-line vs a good Vikings front.
I suck at this game and I suck at analysis. Because of that, I’m just going share stories/jokes instead of why I like each particular team this week.
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over Carolina Panthers. I NEVER play poker in the jungle. Do you want to know why? It’s because there are way too many cheetahs. #DadJoke
New York Jets +1 over Washington Redskins. I was struck by lightning a few years ago. In the comic books, people who are hit by lightning always get superpowers, and it was no different with me. I was given the superpower to shake uncontrollably on the ground and shit my pants.
Miami Dolphins +6 over Buffalo Bills. Light travels faster than sound. That’s why some people sound bright until you hear them speak.
New England Patriots -3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles. The other day I was as a doctor’s appointment and my doctor told me I had to stop masturbating. I asked him why and he told me, “Because I’m trying to give you your examination.”
Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Los Angeles Chargers. Do you want to know what the biggest joke of all is? My life…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 over New Orleans Saints. The Saints are coming off a miserable loss to the Falcons which should have them all fired up in Week 11. They’ll beat the Bucs but won’t cover the spread. Brees hasn’t been at his best when playing in Tampa Bay recently. He has two TDs and four INTs in his last three road games against the Bucs. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore is out this week which should help the Bucs’ passing game. The Bucs also have one of the best run defenses in football which should mean the Saints will be passing the ball a bunch. Look for a high scoring game. The Saints win, the Bucs cover.
Carolina Panthers -5.5 over Atlanta Falcons. Despite losing in Green Bay last week the Panthers held their own and were just about a yard away from forcing overtime. With Cam Newton on the IR, the Panthers and QB Kyle Allen can “relax” knowing that they are on their own for the rest of the year. Even though they beat the Saints last week the Falcons are still a bad team. The home team is 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 games played between these two franchises. Overall the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win. Take the Panthers to cover.
Chicago Bears +6.5 over Los Angeles Rams. Don’t get fooled by Trubisky’s three TDs last week, the Bears still have a feeble offense. Let’s face it, the Jared Goff led Rams offense hasn’t played much better recently. Maybe I’m guilty of recency bias, but I’m thinking this could be a 13-10 or 9-6 game. Take the Bears to cover.
Miami Dolphins +6 over Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins are still a very bad team, but they’ve been more competitive of late having covered the spread in their last five games. The Bills are coming off a loss and will almost certainly win this game, but I see it as a low scoring affair. Take the Dolphins as the home dog.
Oakland Raiders -10 over Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have surpassed the rest of the NFL in total ineptitude. They are winless and hopeless. Look for Raiders RB Josh Jacobs to run wild against the Bengals defense who are giving up 173 rushing yards per game. The Raiders cover this big spread easily.