Five Game Parlay: Week 12
Was there a full moon this past week? I’m trying to find something to blame for how crappy we all picked, as NO ONE was able to get more than two wins. Joe Gallina has been in first for quite a while now, and he left the door open with a 1-4 week, but Ryan, Steve, and Brian were only able to gain one game on him, while Polka matched his disappointing 1-4. This competition does go all the way to Week 17 so there’s still some time to catch Joe, but this was a huge missed opportunity. Let’s take a look at the standings and then the Week 12 picks
Joe 29-25-1 (1-4)
Ryan 25-28-2 (2-3)
Drake 23-31-1 (2-3)
Polka 21-33-1 (1-4)
Cleveland Browns +3 over Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals defense has been atrocious. They’ve given up an average of 41 points across their last four games. Look for a lot of Nick Chubb from the Browns and look for WR Jarvis Landry to bounce back as well.
Atlanta Falcons +13 over New Orleans Saints. The Saints are going to win this game but the 13 points is way too much. This spread is based on the recent play of the Saints and doesn’t take into account that despite a few exceptions these two teams play close games. If we’re lucky we get a replay of this past Monday night’s classic. High scoring but close.
Indianapolis Colts -10 over Miami Dolphins. The Colts have been rolling, having scored an average of 34 points in their last seven games. The Dolphins are going to lose this game, and when they’ve lost this season, they’ve LOST. In their five loses the Dolphins have been outscored by an average of 18 points.
Baltimore Ravens -12 over Oakland Raiders. The Ravens D will clamp down on the Raiders with the ferocity reminiscent of a bull dog. When a bull dog clamps down on you it doesn’t let go and neither will this Ravens D. As for offense, look for the Ravens to use the same formula as last week. Lots of running from both QB Lamar Jackson and the new fantasy darling Gus Edwards.
New York Giants +7 over Philadelphia Eagles. Six out of the last seven games between these two teams have been decided by five points or less. My Giants have been red hot and the Eagles have been mailing it in. The Eagles will probably win this game but the Giants should keep it close.
Washington Redskins (+7.5) over Dallas Cowboys. I’m not quite sure that the Redskins are much worse of a team without Alex Smith. I can see Washington leaning heavily on the run game and that could keep this game a lot closer than the spread indicates.
Atlanta Falcons (+13) over New Orleans Saints. Yeah, I know the Saints are looking like championship contenders, but this is too big of a spread for a divisional opponent with an offense as potent as the Falcons. This game could be Week 12’s version of the Rams/Chiefs from Monday night.
New England Patriots (-10.5) over New York Jets. I wouldn’t want to play a Bill Belichick offense coming off an embarrassing loss to the Titans with an extra week to prepare. Plus, the Jets stink worse than Ryan’s dirty hands after grabbing filthy, germ filled door handles in public bathrooms with his bare hands.
Baltimore Ravens (-12) over Oakland Raiders. I went with the Raiders last week and was the only successful one to do so in this competition. This week, I think they come down to reality and return to the sad sack of sucks that we have grown to love.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over Denver Broncos. The Steelers have won six in a row and are by far the better team in this matchup. I also need Big Ben to have a good game so that I can bring home the championship in my Football Roto league. I’m greedy and want to double dip here.
Dallas Cowboys -7.5 over Washington Redskins. My distaste for the “talents” of Alex Smith are WELL documented, but hell at least he is an NFL quarterback? After getting his leg snapped last week, the Skins are forced to turn to Colt McCoy (puke emoji) and possibly Mr. Butt Fumble Mark Sanchez (double puke emoji). Usually in a division game, especially in the NFC East I wouldn’t want to give this many points, but I just don’t see how Washington can consistently move the ball against a quality Dallas defense with this hot garbage at QB.
Indianapolis Colts -10 over Miami Dolphins. The Colts are just firing on all cylinders right now. Somehow that offensive line has turned into a force field around Andrew Luck, and he is living up to everyone’s hopes and dreams before the season started and then some. The Miami offense can’t possibly keep up with Indy, and I think they cover this ten fairly easily.
Los Angeles Chargers -13.5 over Arizona Cardinals. I didn’t think the Cardinals were that bad…..and then they lost to the Raiders. THE RAIDERS! Let that sink in! Do I think two touchdowns is a lot to give? Yeah, I do, but shit, if the Cards are going to give up that many points to Oakland, the Chargers could hang a 40 on them.
New York Giants +7 over Philadelphia Eagles. Don’t look now but the Giants are on a little roll. Sure it was against two of the worst teams in football, but have you watched the Eagles play lately? Whew! Their defense couldn’t stop me and four of my friends. Well, I don’t have four friends, but if I do we would thrash that Philly D. Eli, Saquon, and that asshole Beckham should be able to light up the scoreboard enough to win the game, but I’ll take the seven points as a buffer in case I’m wrong.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Denver Broncos. Denver isn’t very good. Their quarterback isn’t very good. I know they squeaked one out last week against the Chargers, but I can’t see them pulling an upset two weeks in a row. The Steelers looked like dogshit all day against Jacksonville last week and somehow found a way to pull that game out. I figure that Pitt has to play better this week and should beat Denver by at least a touchdown.
New York Jets +10.5 over New England Patriots. Jets are 10.5 dogs and I'll take them to cover. They suck but they play well at home vs a division rival so I think Gang Green can lose by JUST 10. Elijah McGuire rumbles for a score and 100 total yards. God only knows who catches passes but someone maybe Fireman Ed will catch 5 balls for 75 yards and keep the Jets from missing that number.
Chicago Bears -3 over Detroit Lions. Bears DOMINATE the Lions and win by 10. The Lions can't stop the run. Can't run themselves. Just look like a bad team with very few playmakers this week. I like the Bears regardless of QB to roll on Thanksgiving day.
Atlanta Falcons +13 over New Orleans Saints. Falcons cover!!! 13 is a monster number. These rivals will shoot out, no question. But it'll be a close game. Shit I think the Falcons might even win outright. These divisional games in the South are always crazy. Take the Falcons to not get killed.
Oakland Raiders +12 over Baltimore Ravens. Raiders won't lose by 12. The Ravens offense is a 1950's wing T and I don't think they can score 12 points. I'm not impressed with Lamar Jackson one bit. The kid is a very limited passer at this point. Versus a horrific Oakland team it might not matter but I see this being a one score game.
San Francisco 49ers +3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 49ers win. The Bucs are a mess. The 49ers are LESS of a mess. I think Nick Mullen can work his magic against this putrid Tampa defense and pull the outright win.
Detroit Lions +3 over Chicago Bears. The joy of throwing in the Thanksgiving Day games, I get a chance to run my Lions winning streak to two weeks! The really hit or really miss Lions are three point home favorites over the newly Monsters of the Midway, who absolutely dismantled the Lions a few weeks back in Chi-Beria. The Lions of course didn’t cover the four last week versus the Panthers, and to keep my streak of Lions going, I am taking the Lions to cover the three at home tomorrow. Lions cover 3-
New Orleans Saints -13 over Atlanta Falcons. Right now the 85 Bears couldn’t stop the Saints anywhere, so if you believe the paltry Falcons defense can you are already into the legal weed in Michigan. The Saints right now, look unstoppable, and they will let the Falcons hang around, maybe a quarter, but that is it. An excellent game to pick the over for sure, New Orleans Saints cover 13-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over San Francisco 49ers. Jamies Winston gets the reigns back as QB of the Bucs offense, and the Bucs are a three point favorite while hosting Ryan’s beloved 49ers Sunday. I’m really not sure what to make of either team, well the Niners are in rebuild mode, but the Bucs? Who knows, but one thing I do know, the Bucs will cover the three- Tampa Bay covers 3
New England Patriots -10.5 over New York Jets. I don’t care how good the Patriots are or we think they are, the Jets are awful and are 1-4 in their last five games while New England is 4-1 in the last five. I kind of almost took the Jets here because it’s a wonky number, but New England is still relevant and will cover the 10 ½ on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers -13.5 over Arizona Cardinals. Chargers are rolling right now, but this is not the week to bet against them the faltering Cards at home, we Los Angeles. We all know the true home of my Chargers, and they are almost two touchdown favorites in this stomping, and will run Melvin Gordon all day long. I’m predicting 200 all- purpose yards for Melvin, and the Chargers cover 13 ½