Five Game Parlay: Week 14
There are just four weeks left in the regular season and all four competitors are at .500 or better. Can we keep the hot streak alive? Let’s get to the picks and the standings!
Gary 38-27 (3-2)
Ryan 35-29-1 (3-2)
Steve 34-31 (2-3)
Drake 34-31 (3-2)
Joe 32-32-1 (4-1)
Atlanta Falcons -3 over Carolina Panthers. Panthers just fired Ron Rivera so who knows what this game will look like. I imagine it’s just CMC getting 35+ touches, which is probably a recipe for a Win. But, the Falcons are getting healthy as they have Ryan, Freeman, Julio, Ridley, and Hooper all back in the line up. With that core and the defense playing “better”, I think the Falcons should win this game handedly.
Miami Dolphins +5.5 over New York Jets. You know who is better than the Jets? The Eagles! The Dolphins just beat the Eagles in Miami, but I still think the hapless Jets lose this game to the FitzMagical Dolphins with DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki showing everyone why they were so highly touted a few years ago (that’s a semi joke). Y’all know I am all about Fitzpatrick for fantasy, and this is the perfect storm of fantasy plus real world success.
New England Patriots -3 over Kansas City Chiefs. I want to be wrong about this game. I want the Chiefs to win by more than 3, but alas, I get nervous betting against Belicheck after a road loss. The Patriots should be able to game plan Mahomes to minimize the damage, but with zero running game on both sides of the ball, I am ultimately making this decision on Hill being shutdown/bracketed by Gilmore +, and the Pats defense doing enough to contain Mahomes and squeak out a win.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Arizona Cardinals. Is Devlin Hodges worth of betting on considering the other side of the ball is Kyler Murray? I am not sure so sure. But is the Steelers Defense worth betting on versus the Arizona “Defense”? YES. I trust the Steelers defense to cause enough havoc that Hodges will be able to do enough. More than Hodges, I think Benny Snell should be able to churn the clock and yardage even with a touchdown, and that will be the difference maker.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Oakland Raiders. I’m surprised this line is so close, but ultimately I am not betting against Tannehill and Henry in what appears to be a very soft matchup. I don’t Carr has it in him to win this game, or to even keep it close. The Titans should win this by a couple of touchdowns…
San Francisco 49ers +2.5 over New Orleans Saints. This is the third game in a gauntlet of tough games for the 49ers, and while they lost an incredibly close game to the Ravens, the weather certainly didn’t cooperate. This one obviously won’t have that problem in the dome in New Orleans, and it will be a very close game. The 49ers offense has been playing strong defenses of late, and while the Saints are solid, they aren’t as good as Baltimore. It is going to be a back and fourth game, but the Niners win this one outright.
Carolina Panthers +3 over Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons had a nice two game resurgence, and then they went right back to being a disaster on Thanksgiving night. Their defense stinks, and the offense can’t find a rhythm. They get some help with Austin Hooper back, but this one comes down to getting some points and the Falcons won’t be able to stop Christian McCaffrey. Kyle Allen got back on track last week, and D.J. Moore will crush the Atlanta secondary. The Panthers win this one easily and I’m getting points? Yes please!
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 over Los Angeles Chargers. Minshew Mania is back! The Nick Foles experiment is thankfully over, and the Chargers are going to have a hard time stopping Leonard Fournette and Dede Westbrook. The Chargers will get a good game from Melvin Gordon as the Jags are useless against the run, but in the end Minshew will pull this one out in the end. It won’t be a high scoring exciting game, but Jacksonville wins by a touchdown.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Oakland Raiders. The Raiders just flat out stink. Their offense stinks, their pass defense stinks, and they won’t be able to stop Derrick Henry. Right now the Raiders can’t beat anyone, and Ryan Tannehill is going to lead his team to victory again. Look for rookie A.J. Brown to have a 100 yard game with a touchdown and the Titans win this one by ten.
Seattle Seahawks pk over Los Angeles Rams. The Rams offense had a great bounce back game, but that was against the awful Cardinals. The outlook will be much different this week against the Seahawks. I hate Seattle with every fiber of my being, but they are a very good team, they thrive in prime time, and the Rams aren’t as good as they looked last week. I would have given three or four points, but with an even line this is a no brainer for me.
New York Giants +9 over Philadelphia Eagles. I'm an Eagles fan. There's no way this team beats anyone by 9. They might not even score 9 points! Giants have a healthy WR group, Barkley, and Eli back. They'll cover, book it.
Miami Dolphins +5.5 over New York Jets. I don't think the Dolphins are as pathetic as their record indicates. They play hard for Brian Flores weekly. The Jets aren't exactly a tough matchup. This is a team who just lost to the Bengals. Uncle Mo is on the Dolphins side. They win outright
Houston Texans -9 over Denver Broncos. Deshaun Watson is going to be a chalky DFS play and for good reason. Denver is so depleted on the defensive side of the ball. This team is starting a rookie QB in his second start vs a streaking Texans defense. Houston lights up the Broncos by double digits.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Arizona Cardinals. How is this line only 3? Vegas knows this is Arizona right? I can't imagine this game being close. Start your Steelers, especially that defense.
Seattle Seahawks PK over Los Angeles Rams. I love pick'm games! Seattle is simply the better team. Better offense. Better Defense. Infinitely better QB. Cash your tickets in with Seattle's name on them. Easy money.
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Buffalo Bills. I know my partner Ryan predicted that Buffalo could win this one outright while he was on Sirius with Colton and the Wolfman this week, but I just don't see it. The Bills defense hasn't seen anyone like Lamar Jackson and they will realize they don't have an answer for him.
Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 over Cleveland Browns. With Andy Dalton back at the helm, Cleveland battling injuries, and divisional games always being tough, eight and a half points just seems like too many points to me.
Atlanta Falcons -3 over Carolina Panthers. Carolina is a train wreck right now. They lost to the Redskins last week and just three weeks ago they were thrashed by the Falcons 29-3. This week they are playing in Atlanta and it's only a three point spread? The Falcons cruise to another easy win in Week 14.
Arizona Cardinals +3 over Pittsburgh Steelers. This was my hardest game to pick this week. The other four I feel more confident in, but I like the fact that the home team is getting the points and the Steelers are just aren't that good of a team.
Tennesse Titans -2.5 over Oakland Raiders. Derrick Henry will run over the Raiders defense and Oakland will lose their third straight as they travel to Tennessee.
Atlanta Falcons - 3 over Carolina Panthers. The Panthers will play their first game without Ron Rivera as their head coach since 2010. It will be interesting to see how the team responds in Week 14. The Falcons will get back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper this week and have covered 16 of the last 24 home games against the Panthers. The Panthers have lost four straight and given up 146 rushing yards per game over that time frame. Could this be a Devonta Freeman breakout game? Take the Falcons to win and cover the spread.
Denver Broncos + 9 over Houston Texans. The Texans are on a roll, winning four of their last five and are 5-1 when playing at home this season. Despite those gaudy home numbers, I think they’ll only squeak out a win. The Texans have been getting beaten up by opposing RBs lately, and the Broncos’ one-two punch of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman (who is not playing at 100 percent) should have some success this week. The Texans will probably be looking ahead to their upcoming games against their AFC South rival Titans but they should win a close one against the Broncos who are 1-5 on the road this season. The Broncos will lose but they’ll cover.
Oakland Raiders + 2.5 over Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been an offensive juggernaut in their last three games, all of which they’ve won. However, the Raiders are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games. They still have a shot to make the playoffs and coach Jon Gruden will have the Raiders all fired up as they play the first of their last two games ever as a home team in Oakland. I look at this as a let-down game for the Titans. The Raiders win.
Cincinnati Bengals + 8.5 over Cleveland Browns. Bengals QB Andy Dalton is playing for his NFL career right now. Dalton has covered the last five games he’s played against the Browns in Cleveland. The Browns certainly have their issues. QB Baker Mayfield will be playing hurt, OBJ is chirping, and they continue to be poorly coached and undisciplined. I think they win, but the Bengals cover.
Detroit Lions + 13 over Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings seem to struggle when they are big home favorites. The Minnesota Vikings have won four of their last five as a favorite of 10 or more but are just 2-2-1 against the spread in their last five when they’ve been a favorite of 10 or more. Think back to Week 3 against the Bills last season where they were crushed by Buffalo. Then there was Week 8 of this season against the Redskins where they had to come back to beat the team from Washington. How about Week 11 when the Vikings were 10.5 favorites and had to come back from a 20-0 deficit to beat the Broncos 27-23? Take the Lions to cover the spread.