Five Game Parlay: Week 16
We are down to the final two weeks of the Five Game Parlay, and Gary Haddow is trying to salt this one away this week. It is basically down to a three horse race, and even that last one is reach. The good news is that all five competitors are over .500 as we all picked fairly well in 2019. Let’s get to the standings and picks in the last two weeks of the year.
Gary 46-29 (4-1)
Ryan 41-33-1 (4-1)
Steve 40-35 (2-3)
Drake 38-36-1 (1-3-1)
Joe 37-35-3 (2-2-1)
New Orleans Saints -2.5 over Tennessee Titans. Saints are on a tear and the Titans may not even have Derrick Henry. Saints by a Field Goal?!?! Definitely
Miami Dolphins -1 over Cincinnati Bengals. Fitzmagic will crush the Bengals who are hoping to lose this game. I have no concern that the Dolphins win by a touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys -2 over Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles don't have enough weapons to keep up with the stout Cowboys offense with their terrible defense.
Kansas City Chiefs -6 over Chicago Bears. What about the Bears makes anyone think they can keep pace with the Chiefs. It's now or never for the Chiefs to get into playoff shape and start blowing out teams.
Green Bay Packers + 5.5 at Minnesota Vikings. This is about the line being too large. I think the Vikings win by a field goal, at best. This is more of a pick em game than almost a touchdown. No cook means no faith in the Vikings.
Denver Broncos -7 over Detroit Lions. I am betting against David Blough and the fact that the Lions have one receiver left. Drew Lock hasn’t been great, but he has been good enough, and Phillip Lindsay should be able to run on Detroit. The Lions just suck, plain and simple, and Denver should win this one easily.
Los Angeles Chargers -7 over Oakland Raiders. Philip Rivers has had an up and down season, but the Raiders have had nothing but down when it comes to their defense. Mike Williams has scored in two straight, Keenan Allen is back, and the Chargers defense is not that bad. The Chargers have a cake walk to victory in this game.
Washington Redskins -2 over New York Giants. Dwayne Haskins has started to look a little better, and the Giants secondary is just God awful. The Redskins defense isn’t too bad, and Danny Drops is back under center. Saquon Barkley will likely have a great game in this one, but the Redskins should win this one at home.
Baltimore Ravens -10 over Cleveland Browns. The Browns beat the Ravens the first time they played, but that was a LONG time ago. Lamar Jackson is unstoppable, and the Browns have just imploded all season long. Baker Mayfield regressed greatly, Odell Beckham is supposedly banged up, and their defense was just trashed by Kenyan Drake of all people. The only way Baltimore doesn’t cover the spread is if they just stop playing defense in the fourth quarter.
Atlanta Falcons -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars. This week it is all about the teams I am picking against, and as much as I have been a fan of Gardner Minshew this season, the magic has disappeared. Atlanta’s defense has been better in the second half, and Devonta Freeman could have his best game of the season. Matt Ryan will pepper Julio Jones and Austin Hooper with passes, and win this one easily.
Washington Redskins -2 over New York Giants. Terry McLovin’, I mean McLaurin, should be able to burn the Giants’ secondary and I also expect a good one from Adrian Peterson as the Redskins should take care of business at home.
Indianapolis Colts -7 over Carolina Panthers. Marlon Mack should run wild in this one and while I like Will Grier’s future in the league, I don’t have high expectations for him in his first NFL start.
Baltimore Ravens -10 over Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are just too good of a team and the Browns are just too banged up.
Philadelphia Eagles +2 over Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are tough to run on, and with Dak Prescott sporting a less than 100% shoulder, I will take the home dog as I think the Cowboys will find it hard to move the ball in Philly.
Green Bay Packers +5.5 over Minnesota Vikings. Too many points for a divisional game in crunch time, so give me the five and a half-point underdog.
Dallas Cowboys -2 over Philadelphia Eagles. I'm a die hard Eagles fan but C'mon. This team has zero playmakers. I can't see the Birds putting up much of a fight unless Prescott gets knocked out.
Denver Broncos -7 over Detroit Lions. I'm sure I'll regret this but it's David Blough vs Drew Lock. This should be some 3rd rate bowl game matchup, not an NFL one.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 over New York Jets. Lev Bell revenge game! Or not... The Steelers are going to go all about to burst Bell's bubble. They smother the RB and the Jets offense.
Indianapolis Colts -7 over Carolina Panthers. Will Grier is a disaster. Colts get their mojo back at home. I feel good about this one (which means Panthers by 10).
Kansas City Chiefs -6 over Chicago Bears. I can't see the Bears keeping pace with the Chiefs. Mitch looks good in spurts but Sunday won't be one of those days.
Buffalo Bills + 6.5 over New England Patriots. We’ve got two of the best defenses going against each other. The Patriots are obviously going to clinch the AFC East and they really want, and need, that first round bye. These are the Pats and they’ll find a way to win but the Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight on the road, and are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five when playing on the road against the Patriots. I love the under in this game with the Pats beating the Bills 10-6.
Baltimore Ravens - 10 over Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are a freight train destined to play in the AFC championship game. They clinch a first round bye with a win and they should easily beat the under achieving Browns who will finish the decade without having recorded a single winning record. The Browns are toast and the Ravens cover easily.
Atlanta Falcons – 7 over Jacksonville Jaguars. The Falcons are coming off of two straight big wins in which they’ve covered the spread. They got off to an awful start this season but their defensive play has improved and they’re giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last six. The Jags are coming off of a surprising win and it will be interesting to note if the firing of Executive Vice President of Football Operations will affect their play on the field. Will they show up for the game on time now that the Jags moved their clocks back to the correct time? I’ll take the Falcons to cover at home.
Dallas Cowboys - 2 over Philadelphia Eagles. Whether they want it or not, one of these teams is going to win the NFC East. The Eagles have had a lot of success late in the season in recent years but Nick Foles is sitting on the Jaguars’ bench. The Cowboys have gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. NFC East opponents. Look for this to be a hard fought battle. The Cowboys are the deeper team and will win. It will be close, but the Cowboys will cover.
Los Angeles Rams + 6.5 over San Francisco 49ers. I probably should stay away from this game but it keeps drawing me in. The last three games these teams played were decided by an average of 16 points but I think this game should be pretty close. These two teams know each other well. Both are motivated. The 49ers are still trying to win the NFC West crown and the Rams need to win out to have a shot to make the playoffs. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their past six vs. the NFC West. On the other hand the Niners are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 games when they’ve been favorites. The Niners win but it will be close. The Rams cover.