Five Game Parlay: Week 7
It was a great week for the fellas of the Five Game Parlay as only my dumb ass was under .500 for the contest. There is now just three games separating first from fourth, so only Steve needs to go on a big run to get back in this. Eh, he has won this once or twice so let him sit in last! Can’t believe it’s already Week 7 but here we go with the picks!
Drake 18-12 (4-1)
Ryan 16-14 (2-3)
Gary 16-14 (4-1)
Joe 15-15 (4-1)
Steve 12-18 (3-2)
Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Dallas Cowboys. I like the Eagles to win straight up. The Cowboys are banged up and in free fall. Rumor is a number of Dallas stars will return after barely practicing all week. I don't buy that. Total gamesmanship from Jerry Jones. Give me Jordan Howard running for 2 scores in Big D. Birds win.
New York Jets +9.5 over New England Patriots. Much like Jets players in DFS they betting public may not be wise to the Jets. This is a team getting healthy, playing well, and more importantly they have a Quarterback. 9.5 is a boat load of points. Jets keep it closer.
Los Angeles Rams -3 over Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is a dumpster fire. They get zero pressure on the QB. I like this to shoot out but the Rams make just enough plays to win by a touchdown. Matty Ice should go well over 300 yards again. Julio vs Ramsey who hasn't played in a month doesn't scare me. But Cooper Kupp is going off on Sunday. 200 and 2, book it.
Buffalo Bills -17 over Miami Dolphins. This seems like a sucker bet to me. Buffalo typically doesn't blow anyone out. Miami has trouble scoring. But I like FitzMagic pulling a FitzMagic and throwing a few balls to the other team. Coming off the bye I like the Bills to impose their will on a Miami team already thinking about offseason vacations.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals. Minshew vs Dalton, how is this not in prime time? The biggest mismatch of the week is the Jags D-line vs this sad excuse for a Bengals offensive line. My guess is the Jags sack Dalton 5x and pick him off twice. Ride the Jaguars D in DFS and in betting. This one is easy.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals just flat out stink. I mean do we need more in depth analysis than that? Fine. Leonard Fournette has been the consistent guy we’ve been waiting for, and D.J. Chark has emerged as a star. The Bengals don’t have the firepower to score more than 20 points in a game. Meanwhile, Minshew-Mania will be back and he will be passing the ball all over the Bengals. Whooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
San Francisco 49ers -10 over Washington Redskins. As a fan, I am having a hard time knowing what to do with my 49ers being 5-0. It has been so long since they have been this good. I am trying not to get too excited, and here I am picking them as a ten point favorite on the road. This single action will probably crush their season. However, their defense has played so damn good, and Washington sucks something awful. I didn’t want to do it, but the 49ers should bludgeon the Skins.
Los Angeles Chargers +2 over Tennessee Titans. Is the fact that the Titans are favored in this game mean that Vegas thinks Ryan Tannehill is the better quarterback too and it’s not just me? Lol Marcus Mariota. The Chargers are in complete disarray and have been so much worse since Melvin Gordon came back. And while the Titans defense is tough, the Chargers should win this hard fought game outright so give me the two points.
Arizona Cardinals +3 over New York Giants. This one should have a lot of points in it thanks to some craptastic defenses. I know it is the west team coming east for a 1:00 game garbage, but right now I have more faith in Kyler Murray to make fewer mistakes than Daniel Jones. That’s it.
Houston Texans +1 over Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have surprised me, but the Texans offense is so hot right now you can cook a steak on them! Deshaun Watson can do no wrong, and while Indy’s defense did hold down Patrick Mahomes, I don’t think they can do the same to Watson. The Colts will have to run a ton to keep their defense off the field, but the Texans will be too good and win this one outright.
Buffalo Bills -17 over Miami Dolphins. I hate picking on the Dolphins. However, the Bills are one of the best defenses in football, the Dolphins are one of the worst offenses, and the Bills have had two weeks to prepare for this one coming off their bye. Miami might not score a point in this one.
The Week of the Road Team
Houston Texans +1 over Indianapolis Colts. Deshaun is on fire and will roast the Colts this weekend. The Colts appear to be good because they beat a hobbled Patrick Mahomes. Do not let this line fool you, the Texans will win with Hopkins going 130+ and 2 TDs.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals. What makes anyone think the Jaguars defense is bad enough to allow the Bengals to score many points? And conversely, why is Minshew all of a sudden bad enough to not score lots of points. DJ Chark, go have yourself a game. Leonard Fournette, go have yourself a game. Jags by much more than 3.5.
Los Angeles Rams -3 over Atlanta Falcons. The Rams just got obliterated by a legit 49ers defense. The Rams now play one of the three worst defenses in the NFL. Goff is about to go off and so is Kupp, Cooks, and Woods. There isn’t a way that the Falcons can stop them unless it is because Goff really does suck (which I guess he doesn’t).
New Orleans Saints +3 over Chicago Bears. Why do we continue to doubt the Saints? Bridgewater is 4-0 in his starts. The Bears have Mitch Trubisky at QB. The Bears are missing two starting offensive linemen. The Saints defensive line is fully coming into it’s own as an elite unit. Allen Robinson will be showed by Marshon Lattimore. I trust Latavius Murray on the ground and Michael Thomas to put up points on this awesome Bears defense, even if it is off a 15-6 win with no touchdowns scored.
San Francisco 49ers +10 over Washington Redskins. The 49ers just beat the Los Angeles Rams in LA by more than 10 points. I have nothing else to add.
San Francisco 49ers -10 over Washington Redskins. The last time the Redskins were a double digit home dog was Week 5 against the Pats and they were pummeled 33-7 in that contest. I’m a believer in the 49ers, especially their defense which has given up just under 13 points per game. The 49ers should also have no problem putting up points on the board. They’re averaging 180 rushing yards per game, and the Redskins are giving up 134 rushing yards per game. The 49ers have covered the spread in four of their last five games and beaten their road opponents by an average of 17 points this season. Take the 49ers to cover.
Miami Dolphins + 17 over Buffalo Bills. Despite this being a Frank Gore revenge game, the 17 point spread is too high. The Dolphins are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, hoping to squeeze just a little Fitzmagic out of him. Maybe that helps the Dolphins score 10 points? The Bills are averaging just 18 points per game and four of their five games this season have been decided by seven points or less. The Bills win easily but don’t cover the spread.
Los Angeles Rams - 3 over Atlanta Falcons. I’m betting against another home dog but the Rams are the better team and they are desperate for a win. Rams QB Jared Goff has had his issues this season and is the only QB with more than five picks and five fumbles. He gets rattled when under pressure, but with the Falcons having sacked the opposing QBs just five teams this season Goff should be operating from a clean pocket most of the time. The Rams have shaken things up by trading away CB Marcus Peters and adding top CB Jalen Ramsey to the mix. Maybe that creates the spark their defense needs. The Falcons have a formidable offense but their defense is atrocious having given up just under 389 total yards per game and allowing opponents to score an average of 31 points per game. They’ve allowed 10 TDs (2nd most in the NFL) to WRs, and the Rams are loaded with talent at the position. It won’t be a blow out, but the Rams should cover.
Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 over Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson was one of the most disrespected QBs in fantasy entering the 2019 season. In reality the guy is on pace to crush his career best passing yard total and he’s yet to throw a pick this season. That being said, while the Seahawks will likely win this matchup they’ll have their hands full with QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Three of the Seahawks’ wins have been decided by two points or less. This will be a grind it out, hard fought matchup. The Ravens will lose, but they’ll cover the spread
New York Giants-3 over Arizona Cardinals. Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are expected to play for the Giants this week. The Cardinals get a boost with CB Patrick Peterson making his season debut but they still have issues with their defense. They give up an average of 132 rushing yards per game and have yielded the most TDs (7) to TEs this season. The Giants should be fired up playing against a home crowd knowing that if they win, they could have the same won/loss record as either the Cowboys or Eagles, (depending on who wins their matchup), and still have a shot, (a tiny one) at winning the NFC East. Take the Giants to cover.
This week I will give no stats to back up my picks. As bad as I've been doing in this competition, it's time to just go with my gut...my big, big gut.
Miami Dolphins +17 over Buffalo Bills. Buffalo isn't good enough to be 17 point favorites. The Bills should win this one, but the way Josh Allen likes to throw the ball to the other team, the Dolphins should at least stay in the game.
Minnesota Vikings -1 over Detroit Lions. If you bet on the Lions, they will just break your heart...just like they do to me every week.
Green Bay Packers -6 over Oakland Raiders. I don't care if the Packers are forced to suit up Sterling Shepard due to all their injuries at wide receiver, they are still a much better team than the Oakland Raiders.
LA Rams -3 over Atlanta Falcons. If Jared Goff can't get it going against this Falcons defense in Week 7, maybe we need to admit he isn't as good as we thought he was.
Dallas Cowboys +3 over Philadelphia Eagles. I'm picking the Cowboys just because I'm guessing that homer, Brian Drake is going to pick the Eagles and I need to gain ground on him. He's so predictable.