Five Game Parlay: Week 8
Everything just got a lot tighter as Ryan and Brian at the top of the standings both went 2-3 while everyone else was over .500 including Steve who pulled the perfect week to get back in the race. We are nearly halfway through the season and this is still anyone’s contest. Here is the standings and Week 8 picks
Drake 20-15 (2-3)
Gary 19-16 (3-2)
Ryan 18-17 (2-3)
Joe 18-17 (3-2)
Steve 17-18 (5-0)
Miami Dolphins +14.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a big number for a team who honestly is playing a little better football. Pittsburgh is going back to Mason Rudolph and I’m not convinced they can score any points. Miami keeps this close and beats up the Steelers bettors.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Atlanta Falcons. Wait this is only a 3.5 point line? It’s most likely Atlanta rolling out Matt Schaub. Gimme a break. This is too easy.
Buffalo Bills -1.5 over Philadelphia Eagles. Ughhh my beloved Eagles are in free fall. They can’t score. They can’t defend. They are beat to hell. I can’t see them winning in Buffalo. Sorry Birds fans.
Indianapolis Colts -5.5 over Denver Broncos. I’m honestly surprised at how well Jacoby Brissett has played. The guy leads the NFL in touchdown passes. What he’s done is incredible. The Colts are a serious contender and I can’t see the Broncos scoring enough to keep up.
Green Bay Packers -4.5 over Kansas City Chiefs. No Mahomes? No chance KC keeps this one close. Easy money.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are a disaster, and now even their offense isn’t playing well. Now without Matt Ryan they likely don’t stand a chance. Russell Wilson has a whale of a day against the awful Falcons defense. Maybe this is a week that they finally fire the coach.
Los Angeles Rams -13 over Cincinnati Bengals. Many are down on the Rams, but they aren’t this bad. The Bengals on the other hand are that bad. The Rams defense should be able to shut down Andy Dalton and intercept him three times and Todd Gurley runs wild. This should be a three touchdown game.
Indianapolis Colts -5.5 over Denver Broncos. The Broncos traded Emmanuel Sanders away, and are in a free fall. Joe Flacco sucks and could be replaced at any time. Jacoby Brissett continues to play better than I ever dreamed and Marlon Mack runs. This is easy.
New York Giants +9 over Detroit Lions. The Giants haven’t looked good lately, but the Lions continue to find a way to lose games. They are without two members of their secondary, and perhaps Jones will be Danny Decent at least. The Lions always seem to do Lions things and I find it hard to believe they beat any team by ten points.
Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 over New York Jets. Leonard Fournette will run all day against the Jets, and the Jaguars will send blitz after blitz after the Jets quarterback. Sam “Sixth Sense” Darnold will be seeing ghosts again this week and the Jags win this one by ten.
Green Bay Packers -4.5 at Kansas City Chiefs. Aaron Rodgers is red hot and should be able to tear about this Chiefs defense. Even though this game is in Kansas City, I think between Arod’s arm and AJones’s rushing the Packers should be able to put up quite a few points. Also, the Packers defense has been pretty good and who knows if Matt Moore will be able to limit his turnovers.
Indianapolis Colts -5.5 over Denver Broncos. At some point the Broncos are going to completely give up on the season. Not the owners, but the players themselves. I don’t see how they can keep this game competitive against Brissett and Mack. Even if Chris Harris can shutdown TY Hilton, Brissett has shown his ability to spread the ball around. Frank Reich is looking like coach of the year.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Atlanta Falcons. This line has moved up to -6.5 and I would still bet on the Seahawks. I expect Russell Wilson to bounce back in a big way and rip apart the terrible Falcons defense. Who knows if Matt Ryan can even last a whole game on his injured ankle. Regardless, this is a great week for the Seahawks front seven to take advantage of a terrible offensive line.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Titans have a good defense which should be able to get some turnovers from Jameis Winston. And even more importantly, the Bucs defense is terrible, while Tannehill’s resurgence has breathed life into this offense. I think this will be closer to a blow out than a close game.
New Orleans Saints -9.5 over Arizona Cardinals. Drew Brees is back and it couldn’t have come during a better home matchup against a pretty bad Arizona Cardinals defense. While the Cards have been better than the start of the season, that was against Daniel Jones not Drew Brees. The Saints are just clicking on all cylinders and the Cards will have difficulty on offense with the way the Saints line is playing.
Miami Dolphins +14.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers. The Dolphins are the worst team in football but they’ve been, dare I say, a little “feistier” over the past couple of weeks. They lost by one point to the equally bad Redskins and actually had the lead in the fourth quarter of their Week 7 matchup against the Bills. The Steelers should win comfortably, but they’re coming off of a bye and will probably get off to a slow start. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center the Dolphins should score some points. Look for a snore fest on Monday night with Booger McFarland making a lot of dumb comments, and look for the Dolphins to cover the spread.
Carolina Panthers +5.5 over San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have established themselves as one of the best teams in the NFC. However, they have had problems covering when they’ve faced NFC opponents. They are 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in their previous 15 games against conference rivals. The 49ers are one of two teams (Patriots are the other) who have yet to give up a rushing or receiving TD to a RB this season, but CMC might sneak in a score or two this week. I’m not confident about who’ll win this game, but with the Panthers owning a 9-1 record ATS in their last ten games in Santa Clara, I’ll take them to cover this week.
Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over Buffalo Bills. A lot of people thought that the Eagles quit last Sunday night against the Cowboys. I don’t know if they did, but this was a team that many thought would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and they now find themselves with a losing record and in second place in their division. Although this is the Eagles’ third straight road game, I think last week’s loss was the slap in the face that this team needed. Maybe they aren’t as good as a lot of us thought they were at the start of the season, but I think they cover this game and beat one of my favorite teams of the 2019 season. The Bills have a great defense and Josh Allen is a fun player to watch, but other than John Brown, they don’t have enough receivers to take advantage of the Eagles ugly secondary. Despite giving up 111 yards to Zeke last week, the Eagles have a good run defense which should keep Frank Gore and Devin Singletary in check. I saw a telling stat that the Bills have yet to beat a team who has a QB that has won at least two games. Disappointing Carson Wentz has won two. My favorite stat supporting my pick of the Eagles to cover: the Eagles are 13-0 ATS after scoring 10 or fewer points in their last 13 games.
Cleveland Browns +13 over New England Patriots. The Patriots will absolutely win this game, and while I think they make it look easy, the spread is too high. Jarvis Landry guaranteed a victory, realized he should have kept his mouth shut, and then tried to reword what he said. It wouldn’t shock me if he went catch-less. The Browns will hang around in this game but with rain in the forecast for the entire contest, I don’t think there will be too much scoring. The Pats will come close to covering but I’m looking at a 24-13 final score.
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 over Green Bay Packers. Some of the stats suggest I should be taking the Packers. They’re 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight following a win by more than 14 points. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 home games. On the other hand, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these teams. Does that even matter since these teams haven’t faced each other since 2015? I’m taking the Chiefs because Matt Moore will be under center for the home team. He’s only 15-15 for his career but 20-10 ATS. The Chiefs defense is still a bit shaky, but they should play up in order to support their backup QB. Also, while the Packers defense is solid and has known they’d be facing Moore for the past week, they’re still not sure what the Chiefs offense is going to look like with Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chiefs might lose, but they should cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are a broken team. Just like my psyche.
NY Jets +5.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars. This may be a contrarian pick after Sam Darnold’s pitiful performance last week where he was seeing ghosts against New England, but the Jags aren’t in the same realm as the Pats. No Marcell Dareus means that Le’Veon Bell may finally get on track and I think the Jets have a very good shot at the upset this week.
Houston Texans -6.5 over Oakland Raiders. After the Raiders beat the Bears in Week 5, I thought they may be turning their season around. Then they got smashed by the Packers last week and I was reminded that they still have a long way to go before they can contend with the better teams in the league. Houston wins this one comfortably.
Indianapolis Colts -5.5 over Denver Broncos. All I’m going to say about this one is that St. Elmo’s Steakhouse in Indianapolis is my favorite, all-time restaurant. When you go there, get the shrimp cocktail…you won’t regret it.
Cleveland Browns +13 over New England Patriots. I’m likely going to regret this one, but if Cleveland is smart, they will run the ball on every play with Nick Chubb to try and keep the ball away from the Pats. I think they will try to control the time of possession in this one and that should be enough to keep them within two touchdowns. Hopefully…