Five Game Parlay: Week 8
Look at that Joe Gallina! He went a perfect 5-0 last week to vault to the top of the standings and be the first one of us to crack the .500 mark in a number of weeks. It was a pretty solid week all around (by our standards anyway) as no one was worse than two wins. Maybe it just took a half a season for the five of us to start to figure it out, but let’s keep the ball rolling with this week’s standings and picks.
Joe 19-16 (5-0)
Drake 16-19 (2-3)
Ryan 15-19-1 (3-2)
Polka 14-20-1 (2-3)
Steve 13-20-2 (3-2)
Indianapolis Colts -3 overLos Angeles Raiders. Raiders players are supposedly very angry with Jon Gruden. They’re upset that they had to hear about the Amari Cooper trade from the media and not from their head coach. So, their number one RB is Doug Martin who has a 2.9 YPC in his last two seasons. They’re going to have to rely more on WR Martavis Bryant who couldn’t even learn the playbook before the start of the season and has already been cut once by this team. I’m sensitive and I enjoy a good cry just like the next guy, but Derek Carr crying on the football field? Give me the Colts by a lot.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are done. Leonard Fournette will be out until at least Week 10. Their defense once considered one of the best in the league, has given up an average of 30 points per game over the past three weeks. There’s so much tension in the Jags’ locker room that the team kindly asked the media to step outside. The Eagles lead the league in QB hit rate (22.2%) and may force QB Blake Bortles back to the bench, making it a Cody Kessler kind of day. The Eagles are coming off of a loss and will beat the Jags handily.
Chicago Bears -7 over New York Jets. Jets are banged up at the WR position and they will have a very hard running the ball against a Bears D that has yet to give up a rushing TD. The Bears have a potent pass rush which frazzles opposing QBs. It’s no wonder they are tied for the league lead with 11 INTs. Look for them to shake, rattle and roll Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold. Even with Allen Robinson battling a groin injury, the Bears have enough offensive weapons to cover the seven point spread.
Cleveland Browns +8 over Pittsburgh Steelers. I really should be picking the Steelers. They’re playing at home and we all know Big Ben loves his home cooking. The Steelers are tough against the run so Nick Chubb’s going to have a hard time. However, the fact is these Browns are tough! Six of their seven games this season were decided by four points or less and let’s not forget that four of those games went to overtime. Look for David Njoku to be heavily involved in this game. The Browns cover the eight point spread.
Cincinnati Bengals -5 over Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bengals are coming off back to back losses and this is a must win game for them. They’ve won three of their four games by 10 points or more. Too many people were excited to have Jameis Winston back as the Bucs’ starting QB. He’s a good fantasy QB, but in real life he stinks. He’s thrown six picks and he’s been sacked eight times in his first three games this season. The Bucs love to give the ball back to their opponents and when they do in Week 8, the Bengals will take advantage of their ineptitude and easily cover the five point spread.
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 over New Orleans Saints. Minnesota covers vs the Saints. Evenly matched teams but the game being at the Vikings puts it over the top. They have the better defense and can find a variety of ways to win. I like they to win by 3. No miracles needed.
Green Bay Packers +9 over Los Angeles Rams. Green Bay loses by just 7. The Rams can't cover the 9 but still win outright. Jared Goff is forced to actually throw the ball this week and we have a fantasy bonanza! I like this to be a game that combines for 60+ points. Start everyone in this affair.
Kansas City Chiefs -10 over Denver Broncos. KC blows out the Broncos and covers the 10. The Arrowhead crowd gets treated to Patrick Mahomes throwing 3 touchdowns and Kareem Hunt breaking the century mark himself. Chiefs keep rolling at home.
New York Giants +1 over Washington Redskins. Giants win outright vs Washington. Yes they are having a fire sale but it's at Met Life and the Giants have too much offensive talent to pack it in this early. They'll find a way to score and I don't trust the Redskins at all. They are a total fraud as a division leader.
Cleveland Browns +8 over Pittsburgh Steelers. There is NO chance that Pittsburgh covers the 8 vs the Browns. This contest went to overtime just a few short weeks ago. This has field goal at the gun written all over it.
Tampa Bay Bucs +5 over Cincinnati Bengals. I don’t think Cincinnati is as good as they have looked in the first half of the season and Tampa has shown the ability to be explosive offensively. That should be enough to keep them within a field goal in this one, but I think they win outright.
New England Patriots -13.5 over Buffalo Bills. The Bills SUCK! They are the worst team in football by a wide margin. The Pats are the best and should crush here. TV sets all over America should be switching off by halftime.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars. Seems like a lot of turmoil in Jacksonville right now after benching their quarterback and now having to go to London. The Eagles are a better team, even if they haven’t been playing like it. I hate to pick the London game because they are often unpredictable, but this one seems easy.
Detroit Lions -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks. Steve and Polka always go on and on about how bad the Lions are, but for some reason I have faith in them this week. Maybe because neither guy picked their own team so this is the week they will probably win.
Carolina Panthers +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens. I don’t know that the Ravens are good enough to be a favorite on the road. And even though the Panthers will be down a receiver, I still think they will do enough to win this game at home.
Denver Broncos +10 over Kansas City Chiefs. Look I know everyone is rock hard for Patrick Mahomes as I was for Christy Canyon as a young kid watching our neighbors Dads porn collection, but the Denver defense has held the Chiefs and Rams both in relative check this year thus far. If turnovers are avoided, Denver will cover a Bo Derek….10, give me the 10 and Denver.
New York Giants +1 over Washington Redskins. The Giants/Redskins game should just be a pick’em, but the spread is one, and with the mass exodus of the Giants locker room, things may seem bleak, but they still have some potent offensive parts and a defense that showed up versus the Falcons, so give me the Giants and the one, our writing staff could stop the Redskins putrid offense.
Cincinnati Bengals -5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cincy has some nerve not showing up Monday night and getting embarrassed, so this week, Tampa Bay will pay for their lack of balls, backbone, and desire on Monday night. Give me the Bungals this week covering the 4 ½ and pray Joe Mixon tears this shit up at home, because I need a win badly in my big money league.
Buffalo Bills +13.5 over New England Patriots. Speaking of Monday Night Football, no matter how good New England may be, I have to take the 14 the sad sack Bills are getting, this isn’t Alabama against so Division II scrub. These men are professionals and should take some pride in not getting schwacked in front of a football hungry nation, give me the Bills and the points.
Arizona Cardinals -1 over San Francisco 49ers. Lastly, I’ll do the pick’em in the Cards/49’ers game and will take the suck balls Cards at home, and again pray David Johnson gets 30 touches, because again, I need a win in my big money league, and that bastard has been a huge windsock dong this season!
I’m using notes taken from Rich Hribar’s (@LordReebs) The Worksheet for this week’s Parlay competition.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) over Cleveland Browns. The Browns are -14 in sack differential versus their opponent, last in the league. The Steelers are +14 in sack differential, second in the league behind only Baltimore (+15). Cleveland has allowed five sacks in three consecutive games and I think the Steelers will have the rookie running for his life in this matchup.
Denver Broncos (+8) over Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards to (73) and second most receptions per game (7.0) to opposing running backs this season. I think it’s a good thing Royce Freeman is likely out this week, because Phillip Lindsey’s receiving abilities may be better suited to keep the Broncos offense on the field. Divisional games are usually tougher, so I think the Broncos cover in a closer game than this spread indicates.
Tampa Bay Bucs (+5) over Cincinnati Bengals. Jameis Winston has thrown for at least 360 yards in four straight games. In addition to that, OJ Howard has been a top-ten fantasy tight end in his last four complete games and the Cincinnati defense is 31st in receptions (6.9/game) and 28th in yards (74.4 yards/game) to opposing tight ends. The Bengals won’t be able to contain this Buc’s offense.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) over Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton’s quarterback rating in a clean pocket this year – 115.2. His quarterback rating under pressure this year – 41.5. Baltimore has hurried the quarterback on 14.3% of drop backs this season which is second in the league. Cam will struggle this week in a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Arizona Cardinals (-1) over San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are -13 in turnover margin since CJ Beathard took over four weeks ago, which is the worst in the league over that span. You can’t win in this league turning the ball over and the Cards should capitalize on that. I also think the Arizona offense will get a jump start with Mike McCoy hitting the unemployment line and maybe we even see David Johnson start to return to the David Johnson we once knew and loved.