Five Game Parlay: Week 9
Joe Gallina remains in first place, but both Steve and Ryan gained a game on him this week. There is still just about a week’s worth of picks separating first from last, so there still could be a seismic shift in the standings from week to week. Enough of my drivel, let’s get to this week’s picks as well as the standings with last week’s results in parenthesis.
Joe 22-18 (3-2)
Ryan 19-20-1 (4-1)
Steve 17-21-2 (4-1)
Drake 17-23 (1-4)
Polka 16-23-1 (2-3)
Green Bay Packers +6 ½ over New England Patriots. I’m not sure who’ll win this game but I think it’ll be close. The Packers are playing their second straight road game but at 3-3-1 they need this win badly in order to keep pace with the Bears and Vikings. The Patriots are coming off of a short work week and might not have the same fire and need to win as the Pack. The Pats will show up for this game and likely win it, but they won’t cover the spread.
Cleveland Browns + 8 ½ over Kansas City Chiefs. I’ll take the only home underdog this week. With a new head coach, new offensive coordinator for the Browns, they’ll probably feel as if they’ve lost 1000 pounds of dead weight off of their shoulders. RB Nick Chubb should go off, TE David Njoku should have a bounce back week. This is another game where the underdog might not win outright but the Browns should play their little hearts out and keep it close.
Tennessee Titans +6 over Dallas Cowboys. Three of the Cowboys’ last four games have been decided by three points or less. Five of the Titans’ seven games this season have been won or lost by three points or less. These two teams just play close games and both are coming off of a bye and it might take them a quarter or so to get back into the swing of things. Titans cover the spread.
Houston Texans +2 ½ over Denver Broncos. I’ll just take the better team in this game. The Texans have won five in a row. Demaryius Thomas will score a couple of TDs in place of Will Fuller and get revenge on his former team. The Broncos can’t stop the run and Lamar Miller will get his third straight 100 yard rushing game. J.J. Watt will sack Case Keenum a couple of times...the Texans win.
Buffalo Bills +9 over Chicago Bears. The Bills have been feisty and their defense is better than people think. I know they lost to the Patriots by 19 this past Monday night but they’re home, and they’ve got Nathan Peterman under center. What more can you want? Khalil Mack is questionable at best so Peterman will have plenty of time to throw the ball. Allen Robinson might not play again. This game has upset written all over it!!!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 over Carolina Panthers. Tampa made a huge run to make the game last week close, and while I don’t know if they will win this one, I like them to keep it within a touchdown. Ryan Fitzpatrick either has been the greatest quarterback ever, or a giant pile of dookie this season. Hoping for the former. Give me Tampa.
Houston Texans +2.5 over Denver Broncos. Broncos did some selling at the trade deadline, while the Texans did some buying. Actually, it was the same guy who went from one team to the next. I think Deshaun Watson is starting to round into shape, and as much as I don’t like him Lamar Miller is running very well. I pick Houston to win outright.
Los Angeles Rams +1 over New Orleans Saints. Undefeated team getting points? Yes please! I’m gonna keep picking the Rams until someone knocks them off.
Dallas Cowboys -6 over Tennessee Titans. My season long hatred for the Titans continues. Hopefully Amari Cooper brings some life to the Cowboys offense, but they should only have to score 20 points, because the Titans are incapable of scoring more than 13.
Chicago Bears -9 over Buffalo Bills. Nathan Peterman sucks BALLS! Dude will likely throw five interceptions. The Bills defense is decent but Peterman isn’t an NFL quarterback, and even if they don’t have Khalil Mack, the Bears D will eat him alive.
Last week I found success by stealing stealing stats from Rich Hribar’s the Worksheet. Since I suck when I make picks myself, this week I’m going to steal from someone else...Vegas!
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) over Cleveland Browns. Not only have the Chiefs been great this year, but they have also brought betting gold as they have gone 7-1 against the spread. The Browns have lost their head coach and offensive coordinator and I think it takes them a few weeks to get that offense on track.
Carolina Panthers (-6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Per Oddsharks.com, here are some interesting numbers for this game. In their last nine home games, the Panthers are 9-0 straight up. The Bucs are 2-8 straight up and 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games against the Panthers. Tampa is also 0-7 straight up in their last seven games on the road against teams with a winning record. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the big stories of this week, but trends show that this is nice spot for the Panthers.
New York Jets (+3) over Miami Dolphins. Bruce Marshall does a weekly column for the Las Vegas Review Journal where he gives a brief snippit of each game. In this one he highlights that since starting the season 3-0, the Dolphins are 1-4 both straight up and against the spread. On the flip side, the Jets are 5-0-2 against the spread in their last seven games in Miami. J-E-T-S…JETS, JETS, JETS!!!
New Orleans Saints (+1) over Los Angeles Rams. Per RJ Bell (@RJinVegas), when entering a home game with a winning record, the Saints have won 22 STRAIGHT GAMES and are 17-4-1 against the spread. The Rams have been good this season, but are only 4-3-1 against the spread, so I think this is a prime spot for the Rams to get their first loss of the season.
Tennessee Titans (+6) over Dallas Cowboys. If there is one thing I’ve learned in this world is that Vegas is smarter than the general public when it comes to betting. Per Sporting News, this is the biggest line move of the week as it started out with Dallas as four-point favorites and moved two or two and a half points based on the site. Don’t chase John Q. Public and the rest of those dummies…look for the Titans to cover on Monday night.
Buffalo Bills +9 over Chicago Bears. Sunday I'm making the long cold trek to New Era Field to watch this dumpster fire in person. There isn't enough beer and Captain Morgan in New York to make this game interesting. That said I think the Bills defense will turn Mitch Trubisky over a few times and keep the game close enough. I see another field goal fest and the Bears can't hold the cover.
Miami Dolphins -3 over New York Jets. I'll take the Dolphins to win and cover. I'm interested in seeing how the Dolphins utilize DeVante Parker and what the Jets do with Elijah McGuire. Maybe I'm just fascinated with guys who capitalize random letters in their names. Either way this game isn't for the faint of heart. Hope you got your nap in during the Thursday nighter.
Los Angeles Chargers +1 over Seattle Seahawks. I like the Chargers to win outright vs Seattle. I think the Bolts are headed in the right direction and Philip Rivers is an under the radar MVP candidate. Both teams have running backs listed as questionable so that could drastically change how each offense approaches the contest. Give me LA and their 11 fans to get the W.
Green Bay Packers +6.5 over New England Patriots. So wait the Pack are almost a touchdown road dogs? No chance. This game shoots out and easily is a field goal at the gun finish. This is the easiest play on the board.
Dallas Cowboys -6 over Tennessee Titans. This game is so boring. These teams have no juice. The Titans make people fall asleep just flipping past channels their games are on. Dallas gets Amari Cooper but does that REALLY help this offense? Dallas wins because the Titans have zero idea how to run a functional offense.
Detroit Lions +5.5 over Minnesota Vikings. I’m going right back to the eternal let down Lions this week, they’re plenty potent on offense to keep this within the spread and their run defense is Top five. Now their very good secondary from last year is having a few hiccups, and passing is the Vikings forte with no Dalvin Cook, who is now questionable and may possibly play. I like the Golden Tate trade and better to get something for him now as to just losing him. He gave us good years and has a legit chance to win a Super Bowl this year, but for this game, give me the Lions and the 5 ½.
Cleveland Browns +8.5 over Kansas City Chiefs. Cleveland is the other eternal let down, but their showing minute rays of light in the Dawg Pound, and I know Patrick Mahomes has been christened as Jesus of Kansas City, but they’re in Cleveland and home kennel matters, even to this kicked dog Browns team. Give me the Browns and the 8 ½
New Orleans Saints -1 over Los Angeles Rams. This week is a huge test for the Rams, and this could be game of the year…watch it end up a field goal contest that’s final is 9-6 or some junk like that. Both teams have explosive offenses, so there will be fireworks and plenty of great fantasy numbers this week. The Rams are a one point road dog, but I’m going with the Saints and the 12th man to factor into this tilt- SAINTS Cover
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 over Carolina Panthers. Which Tampa team will show up in Carolina? The hapless lifeless turd of Jameis Winston or the NASA fueled Ryan Fitzpatrick blitzkrieg? 6 ½ at home favorite for the Panthers, I think not, give me NASA Fueled Fitzy magic to cover the almost touchdown on the road, Desean Jackson is reborn every game with Fitz and heck even perennial let down Heath Evans has shown signs of life lately and cost me a game in my big money league, thanks asshole, where was that last year when I owned you everywhere- Tampa Covers 6 ½
Los Angeles Chargers +1 over Seattle Seahawks. Lastly, Seattle is not as good as they looked last week in Detroit, I’m not buying it and neither should you. Give me the Chargers, with or without Melvin as lead back to cover the point they’re getting on the road. Home cooking may have worked for the Legion of Boom, but this is far removed from those days of yester lore. I want the Chargers and the one.