NFL Betting Lines: Week 3 Picks Against The Spread


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Last week’s record: 3-1

Overall record: 5-4

 

Week 2 went our way for the most part, but the myriad of noteworthy injuries has set up a wacky and unpredictable week 3.  Usually when we enter the third week of the season, we begin to get a clear view on each team’s identity.  For most teams this season, however, that is just not the case. For example, can we predict the Atlanta Falcons will forget the rules of an onside kick again? As a long time Falcons fan, I hold the right to not answer that question.  I can tell you though, that week 3 presents a stack of marquee games.

So, let’s stop wasting time and get into them!

All picks are against the spread given by DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills

Line: Rams +2.5 | Total: 47

In my 26 years on this earth, I have learned a couple of things.  The New York Jets stink, the Atlanta Falcons love to blow leads, and never bet against Sean McVay in early 1 o’clock games.  McVay is 5-0 straight up when his rams are playing in the early games.  It gets better.  The Rams are 2-0 against the spread this season and 13-5 since the start of last season.  While Josh Allen has been tremendous to start this season, I’m taking my money on the baby face genius Sean McVay.

Kayvon’s Pick: Rams +2.5

 

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons -3 | Total: 47

Yes, I did see what happened last game.  Yes, I did just call out the Falcons in the pick right above this one.  Trust me, I understand if you are hesitant to take the Falcons in this spot.  But the NFL is a week to week league, you can’t allow what happened last week to affect your pick this week.  Mitch Trubisky against Matt Ryan is a mismatch.  The Bears are typically terrible on the road, and the Falcons are loaded with talent.  The Falcons are home on the turf and they know that if they lose this game their season is basically over.  Give me the desperate Falcons team plus the points.

Kayvon’s Pick: Falcons -3

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -4.5 | Total: 47.5

Speaking of desperate teams, you can add the Eagles to that boat.  If you ask Eagles fans, they will tell you the boat has already sunk.  But as the great Lee Corso says, “Not so fast!” The Eagles are starting to get healthy, including running back Miles Sanders who is off the injury report completely.  The best cure for an offense that is off track is the Cincinnati defense.  I expect a big day from Sanders as the Eagles get their first win of the season. Lay the points.

Kayvon’s Pick: Eagles -4.5

 

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Line: Patriots -5.5 | Total: 47

I love the value we are getting here on a Patriots team coming off a loss against a Raiders team that’s thriving.  Over the last five years, the Raiders are on an NFL-worst 11-19 against the spread after a win since the start of 2016, while the Patriots are 9-4 ATS after a loss during that same stretch. Derek Carr also struggles on the road in short rest games, where's he's 1-4 ATS. He figures to regress against this defense in a huge letdown spot for Las Vegas.

Kayvon’s Pick: Patriots: -5.5

 

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers

Line: Panthers +6.5 | Total: 43.5

The Chargers are an ugly home favorite, 2-10-1 ATS in that spot since 2018. They're also coming off an overtime loss after letting the Chiefs off the hook. This is the perfect letdown spot to fade this team and back a Panthers team that's 0-2 ATS, which is a great trend in Week 3. Christian McCaffrey is a big loss, but Mike Davis had some buzz this summer, and this Panthers offense can keep this game close and maybe win outright.

Kayvon’s Pick: +6.5


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