Week 13 Roundtable
Welcome to the Fighting Chance Roundtable! Each week we will be asking our panel of Fighting Chance Staff a series of questions for the upcoming slate of NFL games. Each person will give you the best answer to the question in order to help set your lineups this week, both season long and DFS. This week we have myself (@fightingchance), Steve Rapin (@fantasygeek37), Jim Day (@fantasytaz),Kacey Kasem (@thekaceykasem), Brian Drake (@drakefantasy). Give them a follow them on Twitter and enjoy the Week 13 Roundtable!
Sleeper of the Week
Jim’s Pick - Chase Daniel, QB, Chicago Bears. Daniel played well in relief of Trubisky against Detroit last week, completing 27 of 37 passes for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns without throwing an interception. This week he faces a fading Giants defense who can no longer cling to the idea that they still have a chance to make the playoffs. He has a full complement of passing weapons and the lack of a true running game. The Bear’s RBs haven’t eclipsed 90 rushing yards since Week 8. If you really need a QB this week Daniel might be the right pickup.
Kacey’s Pick - Adam Humphries, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Honestly, Humphries shouldn’t even be considered a sleeper. He has been solid all season. Still, he’s only owned in 40% of ESPN leagues. Not even sure why this would be the case considering he has been a consistent player this year. With Jameis Winston in at quarterback, Humphries tends to do well. O.J. Howard is out for the season, so those targets could find their way to Humphries (as if he doesn't get targeted a lot already). I’d start him on Sunday against the Panthers.
Drake’s Pick - Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins. Not having played in over a month it’s easy to forget about Thompson. But when you see he’s back to full health and AP is nursing a bad shoulder your ears perk up. Then you see he’s playing the Eagles who he’s crushed the past two season and who is giving up over 6 yards per rush the past three weeks you really get excited. He scores and gets you 18 PPR points.
Steve’s Pick - Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With DeSean Jackson ruled out already, Chris Godwin should be a nice play against a Panthers defense who has shown they can be beaten in the air. Per Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) in this week’s Worksheet on Rotoworld, “In the three games that either Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson missed last year, Godwin had 25.1 percent of the Tampa Bay targets (28 total), turning them into 15 receptions for 277 yards and a touchdown while finishing as the WR35, WR21 and WR7 in scoring those weeks.” Sounds good to me!
Ryan’s Pick – Dante Pettis, WR, San Francisco 49ers. I know the Niners offense hasn’t been very good with Nate Mullens under center, but Pettis does have 13 targets in their last two games and he is still a dynamic receiver. He definitely needs more seasoning, but could have a decent game even though the Seahawks are on a roll and are at home.
Bust of the Week
Kacey’s Pick - Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots. Sorry, Tom Terrific. I just don’t see him putting up the numbers you’re going to need for your fantasy team. He’s up against a talented Minnesota Vikings defense, and he hasn’t broken 20 fantasy points since week seven. The Vikings are going to put pressure on Brady this week, and I don’t see it working out well for the New England quarterback.
Jim’s Pick - Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals. Despite missing 2 games Mixon is still the 13th overall RB on the season in PPR leagues. But this week he faces a Denver defense that has really come into its own since Week 6. Since the Jets and Rams ran all over them in Week’s 5 and 6, they have not allowed a single TEAM to run for more than 98 yards. In those five games they have kept David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Lamar Miller, Melvin Gordon and John Conner to a total of 232 yards in 5 games, or an average of 46 yards-per-game. I know most won’t be able to sit him this week, but hopefully they get him involved in the passing game to shore up his value.
Steve’s Pick - Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals. Well, it was good while it lasted. Tyler Boyd has been a nice story for fantasy owners this season, but with Andy Dalton out for the year, I worry his value will take a major hit. He gets the toughest defense matchup against Chris Harris this week and with Jeff Driskel throwing the rock, I’m benching Boyd if I have anything even resembling a decent option to plug in his
Drake’s Pick - Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots. Minnesota has been stout vs TE of late. Gronk will again limp into a contest trying to give owners any sort of repayment on that early draft pick but it’s not to be. Gronk doesn’t break 10 PPR points.
Ryan’s Pick – Odell Beckham, WR, New York Giants. I’ve never heard a player badmouth his quarterback, his other teammates, his coach, or his organization than Beckham. I really, really don’t like him. Now that the Giants are officially eliminated from playoff contention how much of an effort will Beckham put forth? And he should be facing one of the better corners in the league in Kyle Fuller. I’m not saying sit him, but I am not expecting a huge game from this malcontent.
Which receiver against a terrible defense will do best? DJ Moore vs Buccaneers, Courtland Sutton vs Falcons, or Tyler Lockett vs 49ers
Drake’s Pick – DJ Moore. DJ Moore is my pick. With Devin Funchess banged up Moore has stepped nicely into the WR1 role. A dynamic threat out of Maryland, Moore is going to be a really solid asset for years to come. That shows this week as the young Panther torches the Bucs for two scores.
Steve’s Pick - DJ Moore. I love DJ Moore against the Bucs this week. He’s had 17 targets over the last few weeks and should see plenty this week against Tampa. While I also like Sutton and Lockett, I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore led all three in targets and that gives him the edge for me in this week’s Roundtable.
Jim’s Pick – Tyler Lockett. Lockett won’t get you a ton of yards each week, but he has scored in 8 of 11 games and is facing a San Francisco defense that is 24th in touchdowns allowed to WRs. He also has seen an uptick in yards over the last 3 games, including his biggest game of the year against Carolina last week.
Kacey’s Pick – DJ Moore. He’s been catching passes like crazy over the last few weeks. Tampa Bay tends to struggle against wide receivers, although they have been getting better as of late. I still like the upside of Moore, and I think he will have a nice game.
Ryan’s Pick. Tyler Lockett. This was a close one, and I considered Moore, but I’m gonna go Lockett. He has finally lived up to what many thought he could be, and the 49ers defense is decimated by injuries. The Seahawks should roll at home and I think Lockett could catch eight balls and a touchdown.
Which Running Back against a bad defense will do best? Aaron Jones vs Arizona, Phillip Lindsay vs. Bengals, Lamar Miller vs. Cleveland
Steve’s Pick - Aaron Jones. He is one of my favorite plays of the Week. Since the bye, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 31 pass attempts per game versus 42 prior to the game and Aaron Jones has been the biggest beneficiary of the change in philosophy. He had a career twenty touches last week and he should be able to run while against this porous Arizona defense.
Drake’s Pick – Phillip Lindsay. Phillip Lindsay is lock button for me in season long and DFS. You can’t get a better matchup than the dumpster fire that is the Bengals D. Set it and forget it. This guy might score 8 touchdowns.
Kacey’s Pick - Phillip Lindsay. Always Lindsay. Another solid play, and I love a consistent running back. This little guy can get the job done. Cincinnati is ranked 31st in run defense, allowing 4.7 yards per attempt and 14 rushing touchdowns. Lindsay has this!
Jim’s Pick – Aaron Jones. As well as Philip Lindsay is playing, Aaron Jones has been better of late. In their last 5 games Jones is averaging almost 3 more points a game than Lindsay and almost 5 points more than Miller. Jones even rushed for 72 yards and a touchdown against a very tough Minnesota defense last week. Arizona’s defense is allowing an average of 4.65 yards-per-carry and has given up 55 receptions to the position. Jones should be able to put up numbers both on the ground and through the air.
Ryan’s Pick – Aaron Jones. I have all the love in the world for Aaron Jones, and I think he is going to roll the rest of the season. I like Lindsay a lot too against a craptastic Bengals defense, but Jones is likely gonna carry the ball 22+ times and have three or four catches. Give me Jones as an RB1 the rest of the year.
Which Quarterback against a good defense will do best? Tom Brady vs. Vikings, Andrew Luck vs. Jacksonville, Matt Ryan vs. Ravens
Ryan’s Pick – Andrew Luck. I gotta eat some crow here. I had no faith in Luck coming into the season. I didn’t trust his line. I didn’t trust his health. I didn’t trust his weapons. Well, the line has been better than we ever imagined. With that, Luck has been untouched most of the year and has stayed healthy. And he has shown that it doesn’t matter how crappy his receivers are, he can still put up numbers. Give me Luck over either of these guys every week right now.
Kacey’s Pick - Andrew Luck. Honestly, the Jaguars are just a middle of the pack defense this season. Luck up against that defense doesn’t scare me. He’s currently ranked as the number seven quarterback in ESPN leagues, and he has been balling out since week four. I didn’t like Luck at the beginning of the season, but I have to eat my words on that. He’s been outstanding, and I look for that to continue when he plays Jacksonville.
Jim’s Pick - Andrew Luck. While I think Matt Ryan is a decent play this week against Baltimore, I have to go with a red-hot Andrew Luck. He is simply on fire and there is no reason not to take him on top here. Tom Brady is seriously a distant third choice. Luck is on fire with 27 touchdowns in his last 8 games, with no game under 3 TDs. Over the last 5 weeks he has an amazing 76% completion percentage and a very robust 8.9 yards-per-attempt. Right now you just can’t sit Luck against any defense.
Drake’s Pick – Andrew Luck. All of these options are fine to me. It’s hard to think you’ve got better ones. I’ll take Andrew Luck vs a Jags team possibly without Jalen Ramsey. Luck has been great this season. He hasn’t had a game under three touchdown passes since week 2. Keep rolling with captain neck beard.
Steve’s Pick - Andrew Luck baby!!! Luck has thrown for at least three touchdowns in eight straight games and that includes a 285-yard, three touchdown performance against the Jags in Week 10. With Jalen Ramsey potentially out for this Week 13 matchup, I think Luck can keep it going for a ninth straight game.