Week 14 DFS Values
Week 14 DFS Values
Guys, how are we in Week 14 already? For those of us, myself included, who struggled in some season-long leagues, we’re switching our attention to DFS and looking to get the most out of the last few weeks of the NFL season. Week 13 saw another crop of injuries and positive COVID tests, but that means there are several value plays in this week’s slate. I always love a good value, so read on for some of my favorites for Week 14.
(Salaries are from DraftsKings’ Classic 11-Game slate for December 12, 2021.)
Joe Burrow vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,000)
Joe Burrow struggled last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, but he is primed for a bounce-back week against the San Francisco 49ers. The Chargers are ranked 1st in the league in adjusted sack rate, and they proved that in Week 13 and forced Burrow into several errant throws. Meanwhile, San Francisco is ranked 22nd in adjusted sack rate, so Burrow should have much more time in the pocket. Last week, the 49ers also lost cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt is also questionable for Sunday’s game. The Bengals have elite weapons like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon, and Burrow isn’t afraid to spread the ball around. There is no way the depleted 49ers’ secondary will be able to contain Chase or Higgins. While Burrow did suffer a finger injury, he has been practicing this week and said he “feels good.” He’s going to put on a show in Week 14.
Taysom Hill @ New York Jets ($5,600)
Taysom Hill is the epitome of good in fantasy and bad in real life, but that’s part of what makes fantasy football, and DFS especially, so fun! His fantasy points are misleading about just how bad he looked as a quarterback. He only completed 19 of 41 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw four interceptions. Why am I recommending Hill this week, then? Because this is fantasy football, and as bad as Hill looked through the air, he looked great on the ground. He ran the ball 11 times for 101 yards against the Dallas Cowboys, and this week he gets a matchup with the New York Jets. The Jets are 28th overall against the quarterback position and allow 12.22 yards per completion. They’re also giving up 28.43 fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to the running back position, and we have to view Hill as somewhat in that role. Make sure you check Hill’s status ahead of the games to ensure he’s playing, but he threw at practice this week, so I’m not concerned.
Brandin Cooks vs. Seattle Seahawks ($5,700)
Brandin Cooks should be a WR1 with his athleticism and skills, but sadly, that’s not the case. However, this week looks to be a week where he could put up WR1 numbers. Seattle just lost Jamal Adams for the season. That leaves D.J. Reed and Sidney Jones at corners with Quandre Diggs at free safety and Ryan Neal moving to strong safety. The only positive number out of that group is Jones’ 18th ranked number of pass breakup. The rest of the numbers are collectively dismal. Houston will be forced to throw to keep up with Seattle’s offense, and Cooks is the prime beneficiary of this negative game script. He’s averaging eight targets per game this season, but when Davis Mills was under center, those targets increased to double digits in three games. If Tyrod Taylor is benched as he was in Week 13, Cooks is getting the perfect storm to break value.
Jarvis Landry vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,400)
While the Week 12 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens was a low-scoring affair (and a tough game to watch, to be honest), Jarvis Landry provided a much-needed spark for Cleveland’s offense. He caught six passes for 111 yards on ten targets. If it feels like déjà vu, it should, as the Browns have a rematch with the Ravens in Week 14. Landry should have an even better stat line than he had in Week 12, as cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a pectoral muscle injury against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens’ secondary is decimated in every form and fashion, and even with Humphrey in the lineup, they were giving up an average of 36.53 fantasy points to wide receivers each game. This feels like it could be a season-high game for Landry.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500)
Even if Julio Jones returns from injured reserve this week, the Tennessee Titans are still extremely thin on offensive weapons. However, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been solid in his starting role, seeing 23.8% of the team’s target share and 44.2% of the team’s air yards share (per @ktompkinsii), and that was against a good Patriots defense that ranks 2nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This week, Westbrook-Ikhine gets a prime matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank dead last in defending the wide receiver position and are giving up 35.15 fantasy points per game. If Westbrook-Ikhine gets just over a third of those points, he returns value, and I see him easily hitting the over.
Laquon Treadwell @ Tennessee Titans ($3,400)
While I just mentioned that Laquon Treadwell’s team ranks dead last against the wide receiver position, the Tennessee Titans are giving them a run for the worst, as they rank 31st against the position and are giving up 31.47 fantasy points per game. Treadwell has worked his way into the Jaguars offense, albeit because of injuries, but he has carved out a role for himself. He was four of eight for 53 yards in Week 12 against the Atlanta Falcons and was four of five for 62 in Week 13 against the LA Rams. Sure, those numbers aren’t huge, but you’re looking for consistency with your value plays, and the target share alone is enough to put Treadwell in consideration for Week 14.
Jalen Guyton vs. New York Giants ($3,400)
Keenan Allen was placed on the Reserve/COVID list on Monday, and while he is vaccinated and has the possibility of playing, the likelihood of it isn’t good. That would make Mike Williams the clear-cut number one, right? Wrong. Williams was placed on the COVID list Wednesday. With Allen and Williams out, Guyton is the clear number one receiver in the Chargers’ offense, and the matchup against the New York Giants is one of the best the Chargers can ask for. Over the past four weeks, the Giants have allowed an average of 37.63 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Guyton caught all four of his targets for 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 13. Eat the chalk with Guyton this week.
Samaje Perine vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,200)
Joe Mixon suffered a neck injury against the Los Angeles Chargers, and Samaje Perine looked good as a backup while they were attending to Mixon. He carried the ball five times for 36 yards and caught another two passes. If Mixon is limited in any fashion in practice this week, I expect the Bengals to run a committee backfield against the 49ers. San Francisco is 25th against the running back position, and they’re allowing 24.62 fantasy points per game to the position. I like Perine as a sneaky play this week.
JaMycal Hasty @ Cincinnati Bengals ($4,000)
Injuries absolutely decimated the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 on both sides of the ball, but nothing compares to the injuries they suffered at the running back position. Elijah Mitchell and Trenton Cannon are both in concussion protocol, and Jeff Wilson Jr. suffered a flare-up in his knee. This leaves JaMycal Hasty as the only healthy running back in the 49ers’ backfield. Even if Mitchell and Wilson come back, I expect their roles to be reduced to avoid them suffering a setback. The Bengals are 21st overall against the running back position, allowing 25.28 fantasy points per game on the season. Hasty is a steal with this workload and this salary.
Austin Hooper vs. Baltimore Ravens ($3,400)
I don’t think I’ve ever recommended one Cleveland pass-catcher, but here we are in Week 14 with two on the list! I’m making an exception for Austin Hooper this week simply because no one else is healthy on that depth chart. The Browns love to scheme plays specifically for tight ends, and anyone they bring in will be there to block, leaving Hooper as the lone pass-catching tight end. The Baltimore Ravens are allowing 16.25 fantasy points per game to the tight end position, so Hooper is in a good spot to return value this week.
Kyle Rudolph @ Los Angeles Chargers ($2,600)
As with most of my low-end tight ends, this is a dart throw based on a gut feeling. With Daniel Jones doubtful this week, it will be either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm under center. Neither of these quarterbacks is known for their deep depth of target, so they should target the tight ends. There is also uncertainty around the availability of Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard, and if they don’t go, the Giants should run even more 12 personnel sets than usual. The Chargers are allowing 15.83 fantasy points per game to the tight end position, and if Rudolph gets even half of those, he nearly quadruples value.
There you have it! Let me know what you think and if a player cashes for you this week by following me on Twitter @Britt_Flinn. Good luck!