Week 4 DFS Value Plays
How is it Week 4 already? We’re almost a quarter of the way through the season, so by now, we’ve had plenty of chances to make rash judgments about players who aren’t living up to expectations. The good thing about that is there are some deep discounts in DFS slates this week, so let’s take advantage of them! Let me take you through my picks for some value options in Week 4.
(Salaries are from DraftsKings’ Classic 13-Game slate for October 3, 2021.)
Jimmy Garoppolo vs Seattle Seahawks ($5,600)
Jimmy Garoppolo got some hate entering this season, but he’s quieted his doubters over the past three weeks. He’s averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game on a run-first team, and this week, he’s facing a Seattle Seahawks team that is allowing 19 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. I’m a little concerned about his usage if Kyle Shanahan decides to rely solely on the run game or utilize Trey Lance. However, as the 49ers defense is giving up more points to opposing quarterbacks than the Seahawks, I think Jimmy G will be forced to throw the ball more to keep up with their division rivals.
Matt Ryan vs. Washington Football Team ($5,400)
Let’s be honest: Matt Ryan has not been good this season. He’s only averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game with Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts to feed. This week, though, expect a redemption game against the Washington Football Team. From a fantasy perspective, the WFT is ranked dead last against the quarterback, allowing 27 fantasy points per game. The Falcons defense isn’t much better, allowing 25 fantasy points per game to the quarterback, so Ryan should have to throw to keep them in the game. Even if he only gets 20 fantasy points, he’s quadrupled his value and left you with the option to pay up at another position.
Justin Fields vs Detroit Lions ($5,200)
Although Justin Fields (hell, the entire Chicago Bears team) looked atrocious last week, I’m including him in the quarterback value column this week. The Cleveland Browns defense is really good, with their defensive line being a particular strength. The same can’t be said for the Detroit Lions. Through three weeks, the Lions have given up 22 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Fields should find his footing against their anemic defense. Take this with a grain of salt because it is still the Bears and Matt Nagy is still the coach. I believe in Fields’ talent; the same can’t be said of the coaching staff and potential bonehead decisions (like starting Andy Dalton or Nick Foles over Fields).
Robert Woods vs Arizona Cardinals ($5,300)
This year has largely been the Cooper Kupp show in L.A., leaving Robert Woods to compete for the scraps. However, this week it’s set to change against a high-powered Arizona Cardinals team. Byron Murphy, Jr. should shadow Kupp in the slot, and Murphy isn’t anyone to sneeze at. He currently has a 71.9 grade on PFF.com, and he’s already racked up two interceptions, good for 2nd in the league at the position. Matthew Stafford won’t be able to rely on his security blanket this week in that matchup, plus, he’ll have to throw a ton against this prolific Cardinals offense. This game also has the highest over/under of Week 4, so Woods should finally show up this week and return his salary.
Tim Patrick vs Baltimore Ravens ($4,900)
With Jerry Jeudy out a few more weeks and K.J. Hamler on IR for the year, Tim Patrick is the next man up on this decimated Denver Broncos receiving corps. He’s already averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game on the year, and he’s put up those numbers competing for targets with the aforementioned players. This week, the Broncos face the Baltimore Ravens and their banged-up secondary. Marlon Humphrey should shadow Courtland Sutton, leaving Patrick open to take advantage of a premium matchup.
Terrace Marshall, Jr @ Dallas Cowboys ($4,000)
Terrance Marshall, Jr. showed flashes Thursday night of the massive talent he possessed at LSU. He hauled in four catches on five targets for 48 yards in what was largely the D.J. Moore show against the Houston Texans. On Sunday, the Panthers will head to the Big-D to face the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has the 6th-ranked run defense in the league so far this season, giving up an average of only 70.3 rush yards per game. Carolina isn’t going to be able to rely on their run-game against this defense, so Sam Darnold will have to throw early and often. Sophomore cornerback Trevon Diggs should shadow D.J. Moore, leaving Marshall open against the more vulnerable Dallas cornerbacks.
Kadarius Toney @ New Orleans Saints ($3,300)
We haven’t seen much from Kadarius Toney this season, but that could all change in Week 4 with injuries to primary slot receiver Sterling Shepard as well as Darius Slayton. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones loves throwing to his slot receivers, and Toney is the next man up in the position with Shepard out. I don’t think he smashes value, due to the matchup against a stout New Orleans Saints pass defense, but if you need a cheap play that should have a decent return, Toney is your guy in Week 4.
David Montgomery vs Detroit Lions ($5,800)
After his dominant Week 1 performance against the Los Angeles Rams, David Montgomery has been quiet. Expect that to change this week against the Detroit Lions, who have given up one rushing touchdown per game and an average of 92.7 rush yards per game. There is also HUGE uncertainty at the quarterback position in Chicago, leaving Montgomery as one of, if not the, most reliable option in this offense. If you want the cherry on top of this matchup, the Lions released linebacker Jamie Collins on Tuesday, leaving an already vulnerable run defense without one of its top playmakers. Montgomery is a smash for me in Week 4.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire @ Philadelphia Eagles ($5,400)
I know, I know. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t exactly had the breakout sophomore year so many people talked up in the off-season, starting slowly against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. However, last week he showed glimpses of why so many thought he could do well this year, racking up 100 rushing yards, two receptions, and a receiving touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers. Yes, the Chargers are the worst in the league against the run, but the Philadelphia Eagles aren’t much better, allowing 133.7 rushing yards per game. I expect the Chiefs to get out to a big lead here and give Edwards-Helaire a chance to show why he was a first-round pick.
Dalton Schultz vs Carolina Panthers ($3,400)
Through three games so far this season, Dalton Schultz has shown that he is the tight end to own in Dallas. Although much of that could be attributed to fellow tight end Blake Jarwin’s ACL recovery, there is no denying that Schultz has produced this season. He’s currently TE 5 on the season, and with Michael Gallup out for a few more weeks, his target share should remain intact. You may not be able to count on him finding the end zone twice as he did on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, but you should be able to rely on a similar target share. The Panthers are allowing 7.7 targets per game to the tight end position, fitting right in with Schultz’s seven targets he had in Week 3. I like him as a steady floor play.
Jack Doyle @ Miami Dolphins ($2,700)
While this Indianapolis Colts offense hasn’t been the most productive this season, Jack Doyle is exhibiting some chemistry with quarterback Carson Wentz. In Week 2, Doyle was second on the team in targets (yes, I know last week was Week 3, but I’m writing that off due to Wentz’s ankles). In Week 4, Doyle faces a Miami Dolphins defense that is allowing 13 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. If you’re looking to free up some cap space for a higher-end player, Doyle is an automatic smash.
There you have it! Let me know what you think and if a player cashes for you this week by following me on Twitter @Britt_Flinn. Good luck!