Week 5 DFS Values
Well, we’re about a quarter of the way through the football season already. By now, we have a pretty good idea of who is fraudulent and who is legit, making it harder to find those value picks. To make it even tougher this week, the Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, and Ravens are all off the main slate, limiting our decisions. Never fear! I’m here to walk you through potential values for your Week 5 DFS lineups.
(Salaries are from DraftsKings’ Classic 13-Game slate for October 10, 2021.)
Daniel Jones @ Dallas Cowboys ($6,000)
Daniel Jones looks like the Danny Dimes we were promised so far this season. Through four tilts, Jones is the QB9 on the season for fantasy, averaging 24.8 fantasy points per game. The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 336 passing yards per game and 20.5 rush yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Daniel Jones has some wheels, so I’m looking for him to run for quite a few more yards than the average. Even if he has an interception or two (looking at you, Trevon Diggs), he can more than makeup for any mistakes with his rushing upside.
Trey Lance @ Arizona Cardinals ($5,700)
Although Trey Lance didn’t necessarily look good when he entered the game for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, he managed to settle in and put up decent fantasy numbers. He threw for two touchdowns, 157 yards, and ran for another 41 yards and a two-point conversion. This week, Lance is facing an Arizona Cardinals defense that looks stout against the quarterback; however, they’re giving up an average of 25 rush yards per game. I see Lance exploiting this weakness, boosting his fantasy upside in the process.
Jared Goff @ Minnesota Vikings ($5,300)
The Detroit Lions were the butt of several jokes in the offseason, but Jared Goff has managed to make this team look respectable despite their record. He’s averaging 275 passing yards per game and 20.6 fantasy points per game. The Minnesota Vikings are allowing an average of 19 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and if Detroit’s defense gets them into a hole early, Goff will have to throw a lot. He may not single-handedly win you some cash, but his salary could put you in a position to pay up for a stud who will.
Hunter Renfrow vs. Chicago Bears ($4,900)
Hunter Renfrow has been steadily increasing his role in the Las Vegas offense this season, averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game. His Week 5 matchup against the Chicago Bears and an easily exploitable secondary is just too good to pass up. The Bears are 6th-worst against the wide receiver position, and the Raiders will look to capitalize on that weakness. They rank 2nd in the league in pass plays per game so far this season, so expect Renfrow to see his usual number of targets at the very least. He should return value and then some in Week 5.
Laviska Shenault Jr. vs. Tennessee Titans ($4,800)
After D.J. Chark went down with a season-ending injury last week, Laviska Shenault stepped up in a big way for the Jaguars' offense. When all was said and done, he racked up six receptions on seven targets for 99 yards. This week, they play the Titans, who allowed 27 points to the New York Jets in Week 4. There is a little concern regarding the distractions in Jacksonville and how that has affected their game planning this week, but if the Titans utilize Derrick Henry as they should against this porous defense, Jacksonville will be forced to throw to keep up.
Darnell Mooney @ Las Vegas Raiders ($4,700)
Allen Robinson may have been the number one receiver in Chicago going into the season, but with Justin Fields under center, there’s been a changing of the guard. Darnell Mooney and Fields have developed some chemistry, and it shows. So far, Mooney leads the team in catches, yards, and targets with a 26% target share. Three of Las Vegas’ cornerbacks are questionable for this matchup, so I expect Mooney to take advantage and return value.
James Conner vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,600)
James Conner finally looks like he’s found his place in this Arizona Cardinals offense, reaching the end zone twice in consecutive weeks. He’s currently #9 in the league in red-zone touches, and I look for him to build on this momentum in Week 5 against the San Francisco 49ers. Through four weeks, San Francisco is giving up 27 fantasy points to opposing running backs, and while Chase Edmonds is still technically the lead back in Arizona, Conner’s red zone usage is encouraging from a fantasy perspective. I’m counting on him finding pay dirt once again this week.
Elijah Mitchell @ Arizona Cardinals ($5,200)
Take this one with a grain of salt, as Elijah Mitchell is still technically questionable to return against the Arizona Cardinals. However, when he is cleared to return, he should resume his lead role in the 49ers backfield. In Week 1, when he had lead-back duties, Mitchell carried the ball 19 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. Arizona is allowing the most yards per carry to running backs, so if Mitchell is a full-go, I expect him to build on what he started in Week 1. If not, Trey Sermon only carries a $5,000 salary, so they could be used interchangeably.
Jeremy McNichols @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000)
Look, no one is going to convince you that Jeremy McNichols is going to take away from Derrick Henry’s workload. He’s just not. Instead, what makes McNichols a DFS value is his usage in the passing game. Last week when A.J. Brown and Julio Jones were out with injury, McNichols saw a whopping 12 targets, good for eight receptions and 74 yards. The Jacksonville Jaguars are pretty ineffective against the run, so I expect another heavy game from Henry, but the lack of pass-catchers leaves the door open for McNichols to return value on his salary.
Cole Kmet @ Las Vegas Raiders ($2,700)
Cole Kmet is someone who has underwhelmed this season, but not through any fault of his own. He’s a victim of Matt Nagy’s indecisiveness and just pure ineptitude in running this offense. I expect that to change this week with Bill Laser calling plays in a juicy matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Going into Week 5, the Raiders have allowed 16 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including Pat Freiermuth, Mike Gesicki, Jared Cook, and Donald Parham. The Raiders also have injuries to all their starting cornerbacks, and with David Montgomery out and Damien Williams banged up, this game could quickly become a battle of the gunslingers. If there ever was a get-right game for Kmet, this is it.
Ricky Seals-Jones vs. New Orleans Saints ($2,500)
This pick is so intriguing to me at the salary point. Last week, after Logan Thomas went down, Ricky Seals-Jones played a mind-blowing 93% of offensive snaps. He was also targeted four times. A matchup with the New Orleans Saints isn’t something I would normally recommend, but the Saints have allowed nine fantasy points per game to the tight end position. At this salary, Seals-Jones could allow you to pay up at another position while still returning value and then some.
There you have it! Let me know what you think and if a player cashes for you this week by following me on Twitter @Britt_Flinn. Good luck!