Fighting Chance Roundtable: Week 5
Where, if anywhere, do you see Davante Adams ending up before the trade deadline? If he is gone, who is the main beneficiary of his departure?
Jen: The team most likely to end up snagging Adams will be the NY Jets. The Steelers and Saints are apparently in the mix. Despite having a 2nd round pick to offer and workable cap space, I don't think we will see Adams in the black and yellow. He wants a contender and though it might appear on the surface that he does not have control over where he lands technically (no trade clause in his contract), Adams can refuse to restructure his massive contract if he doesn't like the landing spot. The Steelers would need the Raiders to eat some of Adams' contract or for Adams to restructure it given their current cap space. That leaves the Saints (likely not a contender, and not enough cap space by a lot) and the Jets, who have the pieces but haven't put it together yet. My money is on Rodgers pushing for a reconnection and selling Adams as the last piece of the puzzle. They have the cap space and the mentality of "win now". The Raiders really have no incentive to trade Adams before the deadline and teams will likely wait to make sure Adams is healthy and ready to play, given his current hamstring injury. Apparently, it is legitimate and lingering, which are not two words I want to hear about a soft tissue injury. I'd hold onto my money too. There's a chance other teams jump in, but the Jets are the most plausible outcome. That, or Adams stays where he is because no teams want to pay up for a 31 year old receiver, in his 11th season, with a hamstring injury.
Leo: I think the inevitable is going to happen, and that is Davante Adams will be joining his former BFF Aaron Rodgers in New York. With the Jets in a short Super Bowl window, they’re going balls to the walls to try and bring home a championship. The Jets need another solid wide receiver to alleviate the double-coverage that Garrett Wilson continues to get.
With Adams departure the two beneficiaries will be Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker. Tucker has already demonstrated that he can be productive in this offense as he has brought in 12 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Bowers is already a target monster and will only see it rise going forward.
Ryan: I am in the minority, but I don’t think that Adams is going anywhere. The price tag is a little steep, I don’t think they want to trade him in the conference, and I’m not sure they have a trade partner. There are a number of teams that could use him, but I don’t know that it is going to happen.
Is Garrett Wilson going to be an elite level fantasy receiver? Or did we overrate the Jets offense?
Leo: As I previously mentioned the Jets need a little more help, but Garrett Wilson is an excellent wide receiver. Opposing defenses are double teaming him and he is getting the number one corner back defending him every game. I do see that Wilson will start getting it going this week against a suspect Vikings secondary who are vulnerable to the pass. If he can’t get it done this week, then it’s time to start worrying.
Jen: Probably not, but there's a chance. He likely will be a consistent floor fantasy receiver, but unless the Jets' offense gets better, no one on that offense will be elite fantasy players this season. After answering the Adams trade question, I started thinking about how much of a boost [a healthy] Adams might give the Jets, just in morale. We all know Rodgers is an emotional player/person and bringing in a highly skilled receiver with past chemistry/success with the QB, might jolt this team to life.
But, to be fair, there are other signs of life and last week could be the low before a bounce back. It was ugly much of the time, with the offensive line looking abysmal. HOWEVER, I saw solid play by Mike Williams who is heating up and playing more each week. I saw Braelon Allen, crashing through piles of lineman and gaining first downs. I saw inconsistent chemistry with Rodgers and Garrett Wilson, but potential greatness. Wilson received 41% of the red zone targets thus far this season and 34 targets over 4 weeks. So, I'm not willing to say the Jets offense is overrated just yet. Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but I saw enough watching the Jets that I would still bet on Garrett. I have tons of shares of Mike Williams and the combo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen could really work well if the offensive line could figure out their issues. So, I would temper expectations but not call Garrett a "bust" until we see how this plays out over the next four weeks.
Ryan: I don’t think he is going to be a top ten receiver. We overrated Aaron Rodgers as a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a tough injury and an offensive line is fine but not great. The Jets had one good game against the Patriots and then plenty of struggles. Wilson will be a top 25 receiver in fantasy this season, but elite isn’t happening.
After his explosion last week does Chase Brown have standalone value or was that a positive game script for the Bengals that led to his success?
Ryan: I do think he is startable right now as the Bengals defense isn’t great and the offense is going to have to score a lot both through the air and on the ground. Zack Moss is still the starter but I think Brown is going to do well too.
Jen: I think Brown is rosterable with potential standalone value, but I wouldn't feel confident starting him this week vs Baltimore. The last two weeks, Brown chiseled out a role for himself with the opportunities given and may have earned himself a larger clip of snaps moving forward. Brown played in 40% of snaps in Week 4 and this did NOT appear to be due to game script, as he was utilized early and often, getting red zone carries and targets in the first quarter. The Bengals sprinkled Brown in basically as a 1b, to Zack Moss, 1a and that appeared to be the game plan from very early on. Will that continue? The distribution might, but not the fantasy production this week. The Ravens are tough against the run, so Brown and Moss basically cap each other's limited upside this week. That won't always be the case though and I would feel confident starting Brown in most match-ups. He appeared explosive and tough, sledding for extra yards after initial hits and also seemed competent as a pass catcher. Carolina was a soft match-up, however, so I'm looking forward to seeing more from him. I'm not predicting two touchdowns every week, but I would want him on my roster.
Leo: I would rather roster Chase Brown any day of the week instead of Zach Moss. Brown is more dynamic in this offense. His snap share has been on the rise and is a better receiver than Moss.
Is Mark Andrews finished? Is Isaiah Likely startable?
Jen: Finished? I'm not sure. Benched? Yes, I would recommend it until something shifts. Isaiah Likely played the majority of the snaps the last two weeks and Mark Andrews wasn't targeted once. Yes, that's correct. He had zero targets in two weeks. Given the draft capital that you spent on him, I know you want to play him but I don't know how you can risk a third goose egg without seeing signs of life first. In his defense, the tight end position in general, hasn't been a large part of Baltimore's gameplan recently. Over the last three games, Isaiah Likely received 6 targets total. This week, the Ravens face the Bengals who, so far, have been strong against the tight end position. I haven't seen enough from either Andrews or Likely the last three games to be confident in starting either one. Andrews is only more concerning because of the draft capital that fantasy owners likely paid for him.
Leo: I don’t think Mark Andrews is finished but until he has two productive games in a row he will be a sit for me. Luckily I stayed away from Andrews this season so I have no shares of the veteran tight end this season. Isaiah Likely is a sit for me unless Andrews misses time, or if I’m in a bind with injuries or byes.
Can you start any Dolphin this week against New England?
Leo: How the mighty have fallen? What a difference one player makes for the Dolphins. In terms of who I would start, I would only start De’Von Achane. He is still involved in the offense and has been over a 70% snap share over his last two weeks. Other than that no other Dolphins player will sniff my line up. I will say that if Tua Tagovailoa comes back and the Dolphins make a run at the playoffs he better get some MVP votes because after these past two games everyone can see the Dolphins are nothing without him.
Jen: Yes, I would start Tyreek Hill and De'von Achane vs New England this week. On paper (and sometimes in person), Miami is imploding without Tua. The offense is sloppy and uncoordinated, and it seems like they can't string two solid plays together to build momentum. But, Hill and Achane were consistently involved and their match-ups are juicy this week. Jordan Mason shredded the Patriots defense last week, racking up 123 yards rushing yards, a rushing TD and 27 receiving yards. Running backs scored a rushing touchdown every week so far vs New England. Achane's usage in both the rushing and receiving game helps his chances of being a solid fantasy asset this week. He also currently receives the majority of the red zone carries AND red zone targets (among all receivers).
Tyreek Hill's ceiling and big play ability make it very difficult to sit him, but I don't think owners need to be as nervous as they might be given the last few weeks. The offense involves Hill in both the rushing and receiving game, and often tries to give him opportunities to beat the defender to the edge and turn the corner with his speed. Hill was overthrown for what would have been a long touchdown last week and will have opportunities like that every game. I saw some spark in Huntley, who rushed for 40 yards last week versus the Titans and seems to have some fight in him. They just have to bring it all together and the key offensive pieces should still be able to perform this week for fantasy owners. In tough match-ups, I understand benching them, but it's hard benching two players that could explode for a break-away touchdown any time they touch the ball.
This isn't the question, but I would start Rhomandre Stevensen and Antonio Gibson versus Miami this week. Yes either, or both. Just saying.
Ryan: I’m starting Tyreek Hill, but I don’t even feel good about it.
Do you want to roster anyone from the Broncos backfield?
Leo: Not really, but if I have to I’d would only want to roster Javonte Williams as a flex option. There’s been a turnstile in Denver’s backfield, and no one is taking the bull by the horns and running away from the rest of the committee. A couple of sleepers you may want to roster in deeper leagues is Audric Estime who may return from IR soon, Blake Watson, or monitor the health of Tyler Badie who was making a nice run as being the lead back but has a back injury that could cause him the miss sometime. In other words this running back is a room so look elsewhere if you can.
Jen: No, it's just too crowded for me, on a team with low offensive potential most weeks. Javonte Williams is getting the majority of the snaps on a weekly basis, but has a scary floor and high inconsistency. He received double-digit touches two of the weeks, but then 9 touches in the other two. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him unless I knew the match up was good and I would still be nervous because Seattle (Week 1) and Tampa Bay (Week 3) were still good matchups and he was a fantasy dud. I have zero shares of this backfield. You could try to spot start him vs Raiders this week and Carolina in Week 8, but good luck.