Picks, Props, and Prayers: Chiefs/Ravens
We made it! Ever since that (awful!) final play of the Super Bowl back in February, we have been pining for this day! NFL FOOTBALL IS BACK! Not only is the fantasy season back on, but it is prime time sports betting time, and with there being just one game tonight, you know you want some further skin in the game so why not lay down a few bets? Of course, we never bet more than we are comfortably able to lose, right? Right! With the Chiefs and the Ravens squaring off tonight there are plenty of big names to look at, and although both teams are pretty stout defensively, there should be some points scored too. There are a handful I like so let’s get right to it. I went with FanDuel Sportsbook for these lines, just an FYI.
Over 46.5 points. The Ravens were fourth in the NFL last year in points scored with an impressive 28.4 per contest in 2023. Granted that was an MVP season from Lamar Jackson, but they also added Derrick Henry in the offseason, Zay Flowers has another season to mature, and hopefully Mark Andrews will stay healthy this season. The Chiefs surprisingly only scored just over 21 a game last season and scored just 20 in the first game last season against the Lions, but they sure do have a lot of firepower on offense. I find it hard to fathom that this game doesn’t end with both teams in the 20 and while this isn’t a five-star lock, I still like the over in this game.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Derrick Henry. I think I am on record saying that Henry is going to score one million touchdowns this year, maybe it was two million, I would have to check. It is his first game with his new team, and on a team that led the NFL in rushing yards in 2023 without exactly a who’s who of running backs on the roster. I know Lamar Jackson helps that stat, but clearly the Ravens know a thing or two about running the ball. And if Gus freakin Edwards had 13 touchdowns last year, Henry should be good for one (or more) almost every week. I’m locking in that he starts the season off by finding pay dirt. In case you can’t tell from this writeup, I also like his rushing over of 65.5 yards. FanDuel also has a special bet of him getting 25+ rushing yards in each half at +110 which seems like a ridiculous slam dunk.
Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions. He was inactive in the opener last season, but Kelce topped this number in nine of his first twelve games in 2023. The Chiefs drafted Xavier Worthy and brought in Juju Smith-Schuster (although not expecting much from him) so there are some more options for Patrick Mahomes, but Kelce is still where the bread is buttered. Oh, and just to trigger some people, I hope that they show Taylor Swift more than 5.5 times in the broadcast as well 😊I also like his over of 58.5 receiving yards, a number he hit nine of his first twelve games in 2023.
Isiah Pacheco over 61.5 rushing yards. We know the Ravens have a pretty stout defense, and while they were sixth in the league against the pass, they were middle of the pack at 14th against the run with nearly 110 yards per game. Pacheco is a physical runner who gets better as the game goes on, and I think this will be a close one, which should mean a lot of runs. With his backup Samaje Perine being on the team for about 3.5 minutes and only Carson Steele behind him (I get that he flashed in preseason but c’mon), Pacheco should easily see 15-18 carries in this game and if that is the case I think he will hit this total before the end of the third quarter.