Fighting Chance Fantasy Roundtable: Week 12
It is the week before Thanksgiving and we can be thankful for our players that are actually not on bye or injured this week! We have just three weeks left in the fantasy playoffs and hopefully we can avoid more weather this weekend like we saw Thursday night in Cleveland. But without further adieu let’s get to this week’s questions!
Has Quentin Johnston become an every week starter?
Matt: I think he's useful, but not a weekly starter. Johnston is certainly a WR3 or flex play during these heavy bye weeks. 8 Targets last week, but only 2 catches. Johnston had 2 targets the week before, granted he's got 2 touchdowns in 10 targets.
Rick: He is NOT an automatic every week starter on most teams. He needs to be considered every week. He is in the range with Darnell Mooney types so you need to do a start-sit chart for your players. I use Snap%, ranks, projections, vegas odds, opponent vs position and who is covering them to determine the close calls. It is doubtful that he is your WR1.
Joe: Yes, but only in deeper leagues (15 team or more). In 12 team leagues I hope I’d have a better option who is more consistent than Johnston. His fantasy value is on the uptick recently with Johnston having scored TDs in three straight games and I also like the fact that he’s averaging five targets per game over that time frame. However he’s not an automatic start for me in 12 team leagues. Starting Johnston in a 12 team league would depend on his matchup and if I needed to replace an injured starting WR on my team.
Ryan: The Chargers offense has become one of the league’s better passing games, he has scored in three straight weeks, and had good games against Cleveland and Tennessee (or at least scored against the Titans) what does the guy have to do? Everyone has a bone on for Ladd McConkey, but Johnston is getting it done. People sometimes are reluctant to say a guy they didn’t expect has become consistent, but Johnston is one of those guys and he is in my starting lineups.
Has Bo Nix entered Top 12 fantasy quarterback status? Do you start him over Patrick Mahomes?
Rick: Bo Nix, meet Courtland Sutton. They found each other. Sutton averaged 10 targets the last 4 games. Bo started to recognize defenses and get out of the pocket to run AND throw. Lock and load 20 points a week with a good schedule headed into the fantasy playoffs. How many quarterbacks can you say that about.
Joe: Over the past five weeks he’s scoring the eighth most fantasy points per game among fantasy quarterbacks. That’s more than Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. He’s progressively gotten better and has developed into an every week starter in 12 team leagues. I’d have to look at his matchup before I start him instead of Mahomes every week but based on the raw stats from the past five weeks Nix has been the better fantasy QB.
Matt: I've said on this site before, Patrick Mahomes has become Alex Smith; a Game manager who rarely turns the ball over. Chances are you're barely clinging to playoff hopes if Mahomes is your QB1. If you're below the playoff cutline, you're praying Mahomes can go through the air a little in the next 2 games against Carolina and Las Vegas. The Chargers week 14 might be too little too late for fantasy purposes. Bo Nix on the other hand has a sweet fantasy playoff schedule coming up after the bye and gets Vegas and Cleveland the next 2 weeks. It's situation-specific, but If I'm 6-5 or 5-6 and have Mahomes, I'd pair him with Nix and roll Nix the next 2 weeks.
Ryan: Absolutely! Again, what more do you need to see? The rookie quarterbacks are killing it this year (well not Caleb Williams but I think he will) as Daniels has transformed Washington, Drake Maye is looking the part for the Patriots (please get him weapons!) and Nix looks like a veteran in Denver. He also doesn’t have awesome weapons outside of Courtland Sutton but he is spreading it around and putting up stats. I have waited long enough to think Patrick Mahomes is going to turn it around and I would be starting Nix at this point.
Does Tommy DeVito starting for the Giants make their weapons more valuable, less valuable, or similar value?
Joe: I know DeVito had a .500 record as the Giants’ starter last season (3-3), but he should not be starting for the Giants over Drew Lock. DeVito will give us some comic value based on his hand gestures and yes we’ll get a laugh when we see what outfit his agent decides to wear on a weekly basis but I don’t think the Giants’ offensive weapons will be much better with him under center. (Editor’s Note: What kind of answer is this from an Italian??? Joe, you may be visited in the night this weekend!) Malik Nabers and Tyron Tracy Jr. will continue to be startable on a weekly basis but I don’t see their fantasy value rising much unless the offensive play calling improves. DeVito has got spunk, so he’ll make some exciting plays but it’s going to be up to coach Brian Daboll to devise offensive schemes that will get the most out of the Giants’ offensive weapons.
Matt: Does this affect the price of Chicken Cutlets in Bayonne, NJ? Honestly, in PPR, there's probably the PPR bump for all of the Giants wide receivers. Running Backs likely stay the same. The real winner is the Giants D/ST, and they are actually pretty good, and might not be as gassed.
Rick: Not wasting column space on Slayton, Singletary, Wan’Dale. If you own Nabers you play him. If you own Tracy you only play him if you are forced to like in Week 14 vs New Orleans. NEXT!
Ryan: He will likely throw more than Daniel Jones and likely will be a little more effective, especially throwing it down the field, but I don’t expect Cutlets to all of a sudden transform the Giants into an aerial show. It makes me feel better about Malik Nabers and in PPR you should still start Wan’Dale, but I don’t see much of a shift here.
Did Anthony Richardson regain your trust starting him and/or his weapons after last week?
Rick: Only because the schedule is so amazing for the Colts in your fantasy playoffs. Here are their opponents in weeks 15-17: DEN (4), TEN (22), NYG (24). Could be useful. Hopefully you have a better quarterback. If you don't then you are not making the Playoffs anyway.
Matt: No. The Jets stink. The upcoming schedule and the week 14 bye also don't help. Detroit, New England, Bye and Denver are not what I want to see if I'm trying to get into the fantasy playoffs.
Ryan: You can’t deny the running ability and he has three pretty decent receivers in Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce. Ok, maybe two are pretty decent. Richardson definitely had to gain some confidence from the gain winning drive last week against the Jets and with his rushing upside I would likely start him unless you have one of the top 8 quarterbacks, but I can’t say I have total confidence.
Can Adam Thielen have fantasy value down the stretch?
Matt: Possibly. but even this week it's looking like a long-shot for Thielen to start this week. The Eagles Defense is the next toughest match-up in 2 weeks, but the rest of the fantasy playoffs have favorable matchups for wide receivers.
Rick: If he practices in full on Thursday and Friday, he is an interesting boom or bust play. He is a professional former star. I would watch closely and start if you need him for you flex or third WR.
Ryan: I was asking this question really to see what other people said. I grabbed Thielen in more than one league 2-3 weeks ago hoping he would be back for a little run to the fantasy playoffs. He has long been a PPR machine and with Bryce Young playing better and not much else on the team outside of Xavier Legette who is still raw, Thielen could have a nice impact down the stretch. Maybe this answer is wishful thinking for my teams, but why not?