Fighting Chance Roundtable: Week 10
We are now halfway through the football season and more than halfway through the fantasy football season. Injuries have taken their toll, bye weeks are wreaking havoc on our weekly rosters, and the quest for wins is tough every week. Fear not dear reader, we have you covered with many of the toughest questions you might be facing. Welcome back to the Fighting Chance Roundtable! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter: Rick (@rickwolf1) Matt (@dirtyairFC) Joe (@joegallina) and me (@fightingchance).
Is Xavier Worthy still worth rostering?
Matt: Worthy is safely droppable in 12-team leagues. In 14-team leagues, I'd still hang on. The reason is he's still getting targets from Patrick Mahomes, to the tune of 24 targets in the past 4 games, which is borderline WR2/3 territory. Despite the inefficiencies, the Chiefs proved they are still a game-management team, just waiting for their opponent to make a mistake and then pounce for just enough points to win.
Leo: At this point Xavier Worthy is worth rostering but not really starting. Worthy has been a boom or bust wide receiver so far this season. Through eight games, the rookie has had four games with double-digit PPR fantasy points and four games with five fantasy points or less. It’s tough to have confidence in starting him weekly and depends on the match-up. DeAndre Hopkins already passed him in the pecking order, so take that for what it’s worth.
Rick: Depends on who is on your roster and how big a league it is. His snap share is still 68% and Hopkins has taken from Watson and not from him. Kansas City gets Buffalo, Carolina, Las Vegas, the Chargers, Cleveland, Houston and Pittsburgh for the rest of the season and will pile up the points. For most leagues, Xavier will be Worthy. He will average 10-15 fantasy points each week.
Joe: Yes, especially since we’ve got a few more bye weeks coming up. He’s been inconsistent, but he’s still managed to score double digit PPR fantasy points in three of his eight games this season. I’m a little concerned about how the presence of DeAndre Hopkins will affect the number of targets that Worthy sees moving forward but in Week 9 Worthy played 68% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps and that’s his highest percentage since Week 4.
Ryan: At this point it is getting tough. He was already a guy you needed a big play from in order to make starting him worthwhile because of his low snap count, and now it appears that DeAndre Hopkins is going to be a bigger part of the offense than I originally thought. Not only that, but the Chiefs are actually trusting Mecole Hardman more than I anticipated. This makes Worthy the odd man out for me expect for the rare big play. Is he worth rostering? Probably in a league where you have a deep roster, but trusting him to start seems foolish.
Despite not getting a ton of snaps would you roster and possibly start Ray Davis?
Rick: I wouldn’t as he is very pass catching dependent. He had only 1 catch this week. When he has 4-5 then he breaks one. So it depends on the opponent and a snap share of less than 15% and not the bell cow doesn’t work in the SMART system.
Joe: I’d roster him and if I was shorthanded at the RB position because of bye weeks I’d start him but I’m not ready to start him at RB or in the flex on a weekly basis. He’s definitely one of the best RB handcuffs out there. If James Cook were to miss time he’d probably provide RB1 type production.
Leo: Ray Davis is a lottery ticket and should be rostered in all league formats. In three of his last four games, Davis has scored double-digit fantasy points. Depending on the league size he could be implemented as a flex option on a weekly basis. If you have the roster space and Davis is available, add him and should James Cook suffer an injury you will have a high-end RB2 for the rest of the season.
Matt: I picked up Davis in several leagues this week to cover Kenneth Walker's bye week. If you have Nick Chubb, Alexander Mattison, Zamir White, Josh Jacobs or Kenneth Walker, Davis is worth a flier for efficiency and the chance of a touchdown against the 31st-ranked run defense in the NFL. Davis is also not a bad insurance policy to keep on your bench.
Ryan: This is almost the same question as the Worthy question, just with a different player. Although, this player has performed well lately in minimal snap counts. You might have missed it, but Davis has double digit fantasy points in three of his last four games. The problem is, he is firmly behind James Cook. However, he does also catch a few passes, and Davis has shown he can make the most out of limited work. I think he is a definite guy to roster, but starting him would have to be a bye week situation where you hold your breath.
Do you expect Christian McCaffrey to have a full workload in his first game back?
Leo: If the 49ers want to play it smart they should ease Christian McCaffrey back into the offense. They’ve been patient this long, so might as well let McCaffrey get 50% of the touches this week and increase his touches going forward. If I have McCaffrey I will still start him in Week 10. McCaffrey doesn’t need a full workload to make an impact for fantasy managers.
Joe: I saw that ESPN’s Dan Graziano recommended starting him in fantasy in Week 10 if he’s active and I understand why. If I had any shares of CMC in season long league’s I’d start him just in case he hits the ground running and gives a vintage CMC type performance. However, with the 49ers focusing on making the playoffs they’ll probably want to take precautions and make sure that CMC is fully healthy for the stretch run and I wouldn’t be surprised if they limit his snaps played in Week 10. That’s especially true if the 49ers can get out to a comfortable lead early in the game. They have some very good backups in Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo so they could probably afford to rotate CMC in and out.
Ryan: I do not. I think that he will get enough touches that you absolutely start him in your fantasy matchups, but I would be surprised if he had more than ten carries and say three or four receptions. I also expect them to force feed him a touchdown. Assuming Jordan Mason is healthy, he has been amazing and Isaac Guerendo has looked the part every time he touches the ball. And despite their win-loss record, I still do believe the 49ers believe they can go on a long run into the playoffs, which would require a healthy McCaffrey. Assuming he comes out of this game healthy, I would expect his workload to increase each week.
Matt: Yes, for two reasons: They paid McCaffrey a ton of money and the Niners are in Win-Now mode. The Rams suddenly look hot as they get healthier, and the NFC West is wide open with Seattle in the mix. The Niners will want to keep Baker Mayfield off the field as much as possible and with McCaffery's run game, they can afford to do that.
Rick: CMC has had two full seasons without injury, but when he did come back from injury in 2021, he had a 70% workload in the first week: 14 carries for 52 yards and 5 catches for 54. That is 15.6 and with San Francisco he is much more likely to score so let’s add a touchdown. Now at 21.6 fantasy points, he is top 10. Play him if he plays.
Which is the Chargers receiver that will perform best in the second half of the season?
Matt: I'll lean Ladd McConkey, but it wouldn't surprise me if McConkey and Quentin Johnson end up with very similar stat lines by the end of the season. The edge I see McConkey have is that he has a first-read target rate on about 27% of pass plays. For comparison, Tyreek Hill has an identical first-read target rate.
Rick: Ladd McConkey has figured it out and 5-60 and a touchdown every other week is strong enough, but I like Quentin Johnston. He is a year older and has had trouble staying on the field but he is explosive after the catch. Let’s go Q!
Leo: In PPR formats I think Ladd McConkey will lead the way for the Chargers’ receiving room for the rest of the season. McConkey is averaging 7 targets for this season and has seen his snap share rise over 84% in two of his last three contests.
Ryan: I think it is hard to nail down to one because the passing game is working so much better than we thought that more than one receiver on this team is fantasy relevant. I am not quite as bullish on Ladd McConkey as some just because I don’t think he is consistent, but when he is good he is great. Quentin Johnston has been far better than anyone could have expected and Josh Palmer has his moments. I am going to say Johnston for his touchdown upside, but I am also happy to have McConkey in lineups too.
Besides CeeDee Lamb are you comfortable starting any Cowboys offensive player with Dak Prescott hurt?
Rick: No.
Leo: The only other Cowboy I would contemplate starting is Rico Dowdle as a flex option. Over his last four games Dowdle has averaged 13.5 PPR fantasy points for fantasy managers. You can do a lot worse at your flex spot but for me that is pretty consistent fantasy production in any league format.
Matt: Heck yeah! Brandon Aubrey should be kicking 60-yard FGs regularly instead of 50 yarders! Wait, I’m being told that Ryan Hallam says real fantasy football doesn’t have kickers (editors note: he is right lol). Well then I guess I’m not starting any Cowboys offensive players. I am interested to see if Trey Lance gets involved, as I believe he’s got the talent but got a raw deal in San Francisco.
Ryan: I am still starting Jake Ferguson and possibly Rico Dowdle if you are short-handed at running back. Nothing a struggling quarterback likes more than a check down back or a tight end. This probably takes Jalen Tolbert out of the running as a smart start, and assuming Lamb is healthy he is still a must start. Cooper Rush isn’t a complete disaster as a starter as we saw the last time that Dak Prescott was hurt so I think there are still a couple of guys I am comfortable putting in my lineups.
Do you see any fantasy relevance for Khalil Herbert or Jonathan Mingo after being traded?
Matt: Herbert, yes. A Cincinnati Bengals RB is usually a fantasy relevant piece to have on your roster, and we’re getting into ”next-man-up season” in the NFL. I don’t see Mingo being relevant for fantasy teams, except in Brian Drake’s deep skank leagues.
Rick: No. Herbert is a backup used to spell Brown and Mingo is…well…Mingo. He is a deep threat without a quarterback that can make those throws.
Ryan: Herbert possibly, Mingo I just can’t see it. Herbert has shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and while Chase Brown can do that as well, he can’t take every snap and was a little dinged up earlier in the season. Herbert isn’t a bellcow guy by any stretch, but has shown some explosive abilities in the past. I’m not saying drop anyone decent for him, but if you have a crap guy on the bottom of your bench I think Herbert could be worth a stash and see. The Cowboys offense is going to suffer without Dak Prescott, even though Cooper Rush isn’t as bad as say Skylar Thompson as a backup. But assuming CeeDee Lamb is healthy and Brandin Cooks recovers eventually, Mingo is probably a fourth or fifth option on an offense that I think is going to struggle to score 20 points for a few weeks.
Leo: I can see Khalil Herbert taking on Zach Moss’s role for the second half of the season. Moss could be out for the rest of the season due to his neck injury. Chase Brown will be the lead back for the Bengals, but Herbert could carve out a role for himself as he gets acclimated with the offense. Should Brown fall to injury then Herbert will get to reap the benefits of being in this potent offense.
