Fighting Chance Roundtable: Week 6
Welcome to Week 6 of the fantasy football season! Our panel of experts are back with another set of questions to help you make some tough choices for this week and going forward. Please remember to follow us all on Twitter Jen Smith (@theonlyjensmith), Rick Wolf (@rickwolf1), Leo Grandio (@smooth1074), Joe Gallina (@joegallina) and of course Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance). Wow I just realized we all have three or four letters in our first names lol
Does the firing of Robert Saleh do anything to spark the Jets offense?
Jen: If I thought Robert Saleh was the main or only issue, then this would be an easier question. Rodgers looked like trash last game. So bad, in fact, that I joked with a friend of mine that it was almost as if he wanted his head coach to get fired. Crappy play calls or not, Rodgers made lazy, inaccurate throws and seemed basically indifferent as he walked off the field each time his team failed to move the ball. The only reason that the team stayed competitive was due to the play of the defense, who made Sam Darnold's day pretty rough. Though they tried to play off sideline tensions and poor play, there seems to be some truth to rumors of Rodgers-Saleh not getting along or being on the same page. Jets insist that Rodgers had nothing to do with the firing of Saleh though I think we all know that he was at the very least consulted about this decision before it happened. The one positive thing I will say is that Rodgers and Garrett Wilson finally found their chemistry and rhythm, but not sure if that will be enough.
This question got me wondering about if teams tend to do better after the firing of their head coach mid-season. It isn't common, but we have plenty of recent examples. Generally, it seems that most teams that fire their head coach mid-season, get a slight boost initially, as interim coaches try new things and other teams try to figure out how the new coaching system impacts play. However, most teams continue to lose and end the season with a losing record. The 2-3 NY Jets face their division rivals the Buffalo Bills this Monday night and are 2nd in the AFC East thanks to the even worse play of the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots this season. As I said at round table two weeks ago, the Jets have the pieces, but I'm skeptical that Saleh's firing is a "spark". It seems more like a flare signaling disaster.
Joe: With new head coach Jeff Ulbrich handing over play calling duties to Todd Downing it just might. The Jets have called the third most passing plays this season and need to start running the ball more. If they do, they'll be able to sell the play action pass more as well. I'm not sure if Breece Hall has an underlying injury that we don't know about but the Jets need to make Braelon Allen a bigger part of their offense. Allen has been the better RB this season and deserves to play more snaps.
Leo: I don’t think so, but maybe it will spark a happier Aaron Rodgers that he doesn’t have to worry about getting a hug when comes to the sidelines after throwing a touchdown. I couldn’t resist that one. But seriously unless they trade for Davante Adams I don’t see a spark anytime soon, because what really is going to change on offense if offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is still there. I have an idea, how about giving your best player Breece Hall the ball more than 10 carries a game.
Rick: No. It is rumored that the problem was Nathaniel Hackett attacking wide receivers and making the locker room hell. How can firing the head coach help that? Davante Adams is the magic elixir for this team. If he goes to Steelers or Cowboys, game over for Rodgers and the Jets. Elton said it best…
“Hey kid, plug to the faithless
Maybe they're blinded
Aaron is so ageless
We shall survive, let us take ourselves along
Where we fight coaches in the streets
To find out who's right and who's wrong
Say, Nate and Robbie, have you seen them yet
Ooh, but they're so spaced out
Duh Duh Duh Aaron and the Jets…”
Ryan: How do I follow that response? While Robert Saleh is far from a competent head coach, he isn’t the problem with the Jets. They have three main problems. First, expectations were too high. This team was never a Super Bowl contender. Second, their offensive coordinator lacks any creativity of play calling and isn’t using their best player, Breece Hall, enough. Lastly, their quarterback is toast and he controls the show. Rodgers is done. Washed, finito! He can barely move on this now gimpy knee and his decision making and throws have been horrific. Did you see those picks in London? Saleh wasn’t a good coach but he also wasn’t the problem.
Was that just an outlier or have Bo Nix and the Broncos offense figured it out a little?
Joe: I'm not ready to roster Nix in one QB leagues just yet, but I think he and the Broncos offense are moving in the right direction and will continue to get better as the season progresses. Javonte Williams is running the ball better and he's very good in pass protection which has helped Nix's development. Speaking of pass protection, Nix has only been sacked seven times this season. That ties him with Jared Goff and Bryce Young for fewest sacks taken by a QB this season.
Jen: Punt. Field Goal. Punt. Punt. Field Goal. Punt. These were the results of the Broncos' first six offensive possessions last week versus the Raiders. So, I thought this was going to be an easy answer. And then, they started to put things together. The things I noticed the most about the Broncos offense were the individual effort of players and yards after catch/first contact. Big runs from Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin kept momentum going throughout the game, and a catch and run to the outside by McLaughlin was the first touchdown the offense scored (3rd Quarter). Marvin Mims had a great return that set up that touchdown. The defense kept feeding the offense the ball with interceptions (3 total) and the offense didn't capitalize on these turnovers until the second half. Bo Nix scrambled to gain a key first down. He also scored by leaping over the top of the defense that drive. And then finally a beautiful catch and great effort by Courtland Sutton on the outside to put them back in the red zone for what ended up being a Reynolds TD catch. By the end of the game, I was much more impressed and hopeful for them. The running game in particular and getting that going, seemed to be integral to their success. But, really, it was a team effort by all accounts. Players fought for yards after every catch or touch, and got them. The Raiders are a mid-range defensive team, so I do think the Denver offense that I saw in the second half of last week's game has a good chance at putting together another win this week. Their defense alone should keep them competitive, so...yes, I do think that I saw signs of life from this offense and they may be starting to figure it out together.
Rick: Reading coverages is hard. He has not thrown a pick in three games. That means he is seeing things better. The stats are small, 225 and two tuddies is about all you can expect. Can he help this team win? Yes. Will he run for 20-30 yards a game now, yes. He won’t throw many TDs and he won’t run for many either. Low scoring games. Ball control and protection. A lot of rushing! So yes, great for Denver. Don’t be fooled on your fantasy teams. Your second quarterback is better if he is say, Geno Smith. He should never be your QB1.
Leo: Bo Nix is coming along nicely. He has thrown three touchdowns over his last two games after throwing none in his first three career games. It looks like he may be settling into the pocket as he also barely ran these last two games as well. The Broncos still need to give him more talent but at least he’s there have been some positive signs to build on. For now he should only be usable as a QB2 in two-quarter or super-flex leagues.
Ryan: I mean he was never going to be a single quarterback league factor. However, in superflex he is at least rosterable right now. I have him in one league where I had Goff on bye last week so his good game came at the best possible time. I don’t think he is someone you want to trust on a weekly basis even in superflex given his lack of weapons, but for bye weeks he will likely be better than playing your WR5 in your superflex spot.
Which Colts receiver will be the best for fantasy for the rest of the year?
Leo: I believe that Josh Downs should be the best wide receiver for the rest of the season. Since returning Week 3, his snap share has been at 60% and his targets share has risen as well. Downs has chemistry with both Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco and with Michael Pittman Jr. out for a few weeks (maybe?) his usage will continue to grow.
Jen: Given the confusion and back-and-forth regarding Michael Pittman's back injury this week, I'm a little at a loss regarding what to do about the Colts skill players. I'm not confident regarding what QB will be starting, nor what receivers will be on the field. The stat sheet would point me to Alec Pierce, who logged two 100+ receiving yard games, scored a touchdown in three out of five games so far, and plays on the majority of snaps. However, Pierce is the over-the-top, big play guy, who might give you a close to a goose egg two games in a row, and then be a fantasy juggernaut the following week. Look no further than weeks 3-4 with Pierce, who then exploded for 134 yards and a TD in week 5. He's had great performances and dud performances with each QB (A-Rich and Flacco), so hard to use that as data to help. This week, the Colts face the Titans, who aren't a friendly match-up. Add in the presence of Josh Downs, who has dominated with Joe Flacco under center these last two weeks, snagging 8 catches for 82 yards and a TD in week 4 and 9 catches for 69 yards in week 5, and it's even more difficult.
Currently, Anthony Richardson is questionable and logged limited practices on Wednesday and Friday, and a full practice on Thursday. Clear as mud, right? If Joe Flacco starts, I'm confident in starting Josh Downs and a little less confident but still starting Pierce unless I have more consistent options. If Anthony Richardson starts, I'm likely still starting Downs but much less confident since they haven't developed that chemistry this season yet. I'm a little more confident starting Pierce because weeks 1-2, Richardson and Pierce seemed to be connecting.
I'm not confident starting Michael Pittman in the least, with a back injury that just days ago was supposed to send him to injured reserve, but now he is questionable to play? As someone that has back issues, I know Pittman could cough the wrong way on Sunday and be out, let alone get hit by a 200+pound man going full speed at him. I'm happy for him that it might not be as serious as initially assessed, but that doesn't mean I'm a confident fantasy owner. Pittman really started to get his groove these last two weeks, but again, that was with Flacco. So, all are risky plays. Flacco-Downs is likely the most confident combination for me, but the match up isn't making me excited generally. The Titans haven't given up a receiving touchdown or more than 67 yards receiving yet this season.
Ryan: I still think it is Josh Downs. I know that Pierce has put up a few huge games, but at least last week it didn’t come with high volume. Downs is super talented and who the hell knows what is going on with Michael Pittman. I don’t really like a back injury on a receiver who might go up for a big catch and come down hard and reinjure himself.
Joe: It's close but with Michael Pittman maybe to miss multiple games due to a back injury I'll take Josh Downs. Pittman played a significantly higher percentage of offensive snaps than Downs over the past couple of weeks but Downs had more four more targets and six more catches than Pittman during that time frame.
Rick: Assuming his injury is ok Michael Pittman. He is the best talent, and talent always comes to the top. While Flacco is QB, he will spread it around. Pierce, Downs, Mitchell all can have good games, but how do you predict that? The only playable WR is Pittman.
If you picked up Dontayvion Wicks, do you put him back in your starting lineup if you played him last week?
Leo: I was one of the souls that fell into that trap and inserted Dontayvion Wicks into a couple of lineups and I was not happy with the outcome. Going forward it will depend on the necessity to put him back into the starting lineup again due to byes or injuries. Mainly it will come down to the matchup.
Rick: Would think you must have better? In 16 team leagues or a lot of flex spots like SFB, maybe. He was great when Reed was banged up and played anyway. Reed is 100%, I am sitting Wicks especially when Watson and Doubs are back. He will have two games with 100 and two TDs, but how are you going to predict that and survive the 2-26 games?
Jen: No, I wouldn't. Romeo Doubs is returning to action this week and Christian Watson put together limited practices all week and is questionable to return as well. Wicks' snap count jumped from 46% to 76% after Watson got hurt, so his return would likely be the most impactful to Wicks' opportunities, but both returning just muddies the water in general. The only Green Bay receiver that I would feel comfortable with starting this week is Jayden Reed. He receives 6-8 targets per game and is the most consistent with production. You can take a flyer on Doubs, but how this will shake out with Doubs, Watson, Wicks, Melton, and Heath this week isn't something that is clear.
Ryan: Assuming you have some bye week issues, I am going against the grain and back to the well with Wicks. Wow, two cliches in one sentence! And that is also assuming this is a league where you have a flex spot or two. If it is a straight three receiver league with no flex you should have better. Kraft has been getting more attention than we expected, and Doubs and Watson could be back this week. However, Wicks is a boom or bust candidate who booms big when he does. Against the Cardinals defense, I think two or more pass catchers could have a big game.
With bye weeks a factor, has Tank Bigsby become a must start?
Rick: No. Not a must start. If you drafted like I do with the SMART System, you have three bell cow running backs already and likely a better fourth one. Also, many of my wide receivers are more worthy than guys like Bigsby and Cam Akers, etc. He must be owned. He is not yet, a must start.
Jen: Bigsby out-snapped Travis Etienne last week, gaining over 100 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. However, this was likely due to Etienne getting banged up (shoulder) near the end of the game. Given bye weeks, you might not have better choices and Bigsby will get opportunities. Last week's match up was soft against the Colts and is similar this week against Chicago. Etienne was removed from the injury report and so it remains to be seen if Bigsby's performance last week is enough to earn him a few extra opportunities. Fantasy owners should temper expectations, as Etienne has a firm grip on the majority of red zone touches and targets, as well as touches overall. But, I do think that Bigsby is slowly chiseling out standalone value. I am starting Tank Bigsby this week in Scott Fish Bowl, if that helps you at all.
Joe: The Jags made it known that they wanted to lighten Travis Etienne's workload before the season started so it's not surprising that Bigsby's role has increased this season. With Etienne dealing with a nagging shoulder injury and Bigsby putting together two big weeks in a row yes, Bigsby should definitely be considered as an option if you're looking for a replacement RB during the bye weeks. With Bigsby's thunder and Etienne's lightning they each may have individual standalone fantasy value outside of the NFL's bye weeks (similar to David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs).
Leo: As the season has progressed Tank Bigsby has turned the tide for which running back shall garner more touches. This season Travis Etienne has looked ordinary and not separated himself like he did last season. Bigsby should be used at the very least as flex option going with the bye week gauntlet on the way.
Ryan: I do think he has become that. Running back has been a roller coaster this year with injuries and all, and we have slowly watched Bigsby cut into Etienne’s workload. It also does help that the starter likely isn’t 100% but Bigsby has been making the most of his opportunities and when players show the coach they can make plays, they get on the field more. And with Bigsby also showing he is adept at pass catching as well, he is a great play in my opinion.
Rest of season would you prefer Dalton Kincaid or Mark Andrews?
Joe: As someone who drafted Andrews in a 12 team league and dropped him after two straight zero fantasy point weeks I will easily take Kincaid for the rest of season. Kincaid has 10 more targets and five more catches than Andrews so far this season. Andrews isn't even the best fantasy TE on the Ravens. That honor goes to Isaiah Likely who has six more catches than Andrews. Likely also has three TDs, compared to zero for Andrews.
Leo: Between these two underperforming tight ends, I will simply prefer Dalton Kincaid for the rest of the season. Although Kincaid hasn’t been that much better than Mark Andrews so far this season, Kincaid is currently a more intricate part of the offense. Kincaid has seen 24 targets to Andrews 14 targets so far through five games, and has more fantasy points than him as well. Andrews is being outperformed by Isaiah Likely and even Charlie Kolar is getting targets now.
Rick: I prefer Dalton Kincaid and not close. When star athletes have a major injury, you need to be sure that they will return to form. Andrews is starting to show promise, but Kincaid will come another step forward as soon as the Bills get healthier and he can be split out more.
Jen: Dalton Kincaid and I don't think it's close. Kincaid leads Buffalo tight-ends in snaps and also dominates targets (18 targets over the last three games, versus Knox with 3) meanwhile Isaiah Likely has outsnapped Mark Andrews since Week 3. Both Likely and Andrews have similar target shares the last 3 weeks (6 and 7 respectively) but aren't targeted heavily in general. Kincaid receives almost 20% of overall target share and is the #1 red zone target on the team (28% red zone target share). He's got a tough match-up vs the Jets this week, but I would be more confident in Kincaid over Andrews moving forward. I hope that Andrews can turn it around, but hasn't been the best year for tight ends in general in regards to fantasy football. With tight end production relying so heavily on touchdowns, I'd much prefer a guy receiving 28% of the red zone targets and leading the team, versus a player that literally hasn't been targeted in the red zone this season. I'm also surprised, but I don't think we can ignore it at this point.
Ryan: Ugh I came up with this question and I still don’t like it lol. I did not draft Andrews at all, and I drafted Kincaid as much as I possibly could so guess which one has a bad taste in my mouth right now? What everyone else said all makes sense. The Bills are using Kincaid more and he has less competition at the position on his own team. But he just isn’t performing. Andrews, on the other hand, has been flat out awful. He had almost nothing in the first half last week but then exploded (by his 2024 standards) with four catches for 55 yards. However, it was against the Bengals who can’t stop a pee wee football team right now. I am reluctantly saying Kincaid in the hope he gets his s-h-i-t together as Andrews just looks lost.