Fighting Chance Roundtable: Week 8
Welcome back to the Fighting Chance Roundtable! The season is flying and lineup decisions continue to be more crucial by the week as we all fight for the playoffs. We have a handful of some good questions for you so let’s get right to it! As always follow us on Twitter: Jen (@theonlyjensmith), Matt (@dirtyairFC), Rick (@rickwolf1), Joe (@joegallina) and myself @fightingchance). ENJOY!
Which of these two quarterbacks do you trust more ROS for fantasy? Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes?
Rick: Dak Prescott is a better fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season than Patrick Mahomes as for total points. Patrick Mahomes is the most consistent quarterback in the NFL if you need 15 FPTs. You need upside to win and a stretch in the playoffs to win it all.
Look at the Cowboys Fantasy Playoffs Schedule: CIN, @CAR, TB and @ PHI in week 17. Give me Dak!
Jen: I understand the reason for the question, but my answer is going to be Mahomes and that still feels predictable. When I'm looking at fantasy football, I focus on offense and opportunity. I do realize that Kansas City will likely lean on their running game more with their receiving room injuries and likely game script. However, I can't reasonably look at the Dallas offense and advise you to play Dak over Mahomes. There might be games where Dak scores more points, but that route comes with a whole lot more stress and volatility. I know that Mahomes hasn't performed at the level that fantasy owners expect when they draft him early and sacrifice at other positions, but the entire offense hasn't been able to find consistency due to the constant changes and injuries. My hope is that the Hopkins trade will give Mahomes a reliable receiver to target, but they've also been creative with Mecole Hardman and also using both tight ends Kelce and Gray to help move the ball downfield.
For what it's worth, I also think the numbers can tell a different tale versus watching the game, and Mahomes' two interceptions cast a darker light on his performance last week than is really warranted. The first INT was a blocked throw by a linesman that he caught out of the air and the second happened when his receiver fell down on a route. The offensive line was also struggling to protect him at times. If I have Mahomes and I paid what you likely paid for him if you do, I'm starting him and I'm honestly not that worried.
Joe: Both Mahomes and Prescott haven’t been good fantasy QBs this season and initially I was going to choose Mahomes. However, Prescott is averaging just about six more attempts per game than Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are running the ball a lot more this season. In 2023 they ran the ball 39.66% of the time and this season that percentage has jumped to 48.84%. The Dallas Cowboys throw the ball at the second highest rate in football and unless they commit to running the ball with Rico Dowdle as their lead back that won’t change. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives the Chiefs a deeper WR room but JuJu Smith Schuster (hamstring) is out in Week 8. Mahomes and Andy Reid will find a way to lead his team to more victories than Prescott ROS but when it comes to fantasy points, Prescott is the better option the rest of the way.
Matt: It's going to be Dak, and it's not particularly close. I've said it a few times across X, Patrick Mahomes has become Alex Smith. Injuries have not been kind to the Undefeated Chiefs and Andy Reid and Mahomes know they can dial it up anytime they need to. But at 6-0 and the tiebreaker on the Ravens, will they need to turn it up at all the rest of the season? Dak and the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives the rest of the season and will have to get creative to win games without a solid run game and a faltering defense.
Ryan: Even with the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins it is still Dak Prescott. Everyone says he sucks and the Cowboys should move on from him, but history shows he is a great fantasy quarterback. The Cowboys have not had a good first half of the season and it seems like they never throw to CeeDee Lamb after halftime, but I just can’t see this continuing. Not to mention, with all of the injuries to the defense, the offense is going to have to put up some points. It might be tough sledding this week against the 49ers, but Dak should have a great second half while Mahomes is solid but their game plans just seem to be conservative anymore and Mahomes is missing throws he normally doesn’t.
Do you see a large increase in fantasy value for DeAndre Hopkins after the trade to Kansas City?
Jen: I'm not sure how you go from the Titans to the Chiefs and don't see a large increase in fantasy value. Kansas City receivers are dropping like flies and Juju was already ruled out for this week (and it's hammie issue, so I don't trust him moving forward either). Hopkins could bring some new life and his veteran presence could do wonders for the decimated KC receiving room, especially rookie speedster Xavier Worthy. I would temper expectations this week vs the Raiders, but I do think they will try to get their new receiver involved. The Chiefs likely will lean on their run game this week with the success of Kareem Hunt, the soft match up, and the likely game script. However, I think Hopkins will be a reliable floor option at worst and have a ceiling that only Patrick Mahomes can offer as the season moves forward. Hopkins owners have to understand this is literally the best possible outcome for him, hands down, so, at least they have a shot at a viable weekly starter now (which I do think Hopkins will be).
Joe: I think he’ll get a steady diet of targets every week but the Chiefs are crafty in when it comes to their offensive strategy. It changes week to week depending on the weaknesses of their opponent. They’re running the ball more this season so that might stop Hopkins from seeing a huge increase in his fantasy value but Hopkins will still be playing with a better QB than he had been and that’s got to count for something. He’s obviously startable every week but with the way the Chiefs spread the ball around and with Taylor Swift’s boyfriend being Mahomes’ favorite target I think Hopkins with be a slightly better than average fantasy WR moving forward.
Ryan: He could have a good game here and there and should be on rosters, but I just don’t see him being an every week must start until the Chiefs passing game shows me something. Hopkins was once an elite receiver, but injuries and time have slowed both of those down. The Chiefs also spread the ball around and have been running more and I just don’t see this being a huge deal. Is he better on Kansas City than Tennessee? Absolutely. Is it a large increase in fantasy value? That I’m not sure I can agree with.
Matt: If you think Hot Wheels cars are large, then yeah. As I mentioned in the Mahomes Vs Prescott question, The Chiefs will be a game-management team. They want everyone to stay healthy and won't turn up the wick unless they feel they need to.
Rick: Yes and no. In leagues where you have a lot of starters, yes. He is a good for a potential second flex as he is boom or bust on any week. He should be a good red zone threat now that Kelce has lost a step on getting open in the red zone. Not sure if you noticed that he is slower and I am not saying that it is what Mickey said to Rocky, “Women weakens legs.”. It is that he got a year older and this game pounds you down.
Does Jameis Winston starting for the Browns give any of their wide receivers fantasy value?
Matt: Yes. Jameis is going to chuck it as much as possible. Not only is Winston fighting for a job next year, but the coaching staff, the receivers, and even Chubb are also all potentially gone next year. This team likely won't game-manage, and the Browns defense is decent enough to keep some of the YOLO balls from completely killing the game. Njoku is the biggest beneficiary, but any WR can be a flex-worthy fill-in.
Rick: Yes. He will throw interceptions. Elijah Moore feels like the guy who gets the most juice as he is the guy who always looks open and Winston will chuck it that way. Hopefully you are not that desperate
Jen: Yes, it definitely does. I generally think that we know what to expect when watching Winston. He will bring some fresh energy and push the ball downfield, which is not something that the Browns have done well this season, to put it lightly. While we've seen Winston play strong, boost offensive momentum, and make some great throws, we've also seen why he is a back-up QB in the NFL -- his carelessness with the ball. One might argue that similar to Flacco coming in last season, there is a "what do we have to lose" mentality right now in Cleveland. So, I don't think many will bat an eye at a few interceptions if they can see their team score a few touchdowns as well. I also think that's the kind of football atmosphere that Winston might thrive in -- he can't do worse than Watson and he's free to be a gunslinger with the ball, just the way he likes it. Fantasy owners and fans will see touchdowns and interceptions alike, but I think we all share the sentiment that ....we don't care. It's better than what we were watching. The guys that will see a bump up are : Njoku, Jeudy, and Tillman.
Ryan: We’ve been clamoring for him to get another chance after his 30 touchdown/30 interception season. The Browns offense has been stagnant all season and they traded away Amari Cooper. Nick Chubb is back so their running game should improve. As far as receivers, I am higher on Jerry Jeudy now. Always inconsistent in Denver, Jeudy has been the best receiver on the team this season, and that includes Amari Cooper. Winston can chuck the ball down the field and once upon a time, Jeudy was supposed to be a deep ball threat. It might not be more than flex value, but I like Jeudy in the second half of the season.
Has Hunter Henry become a weekly must start for fantasy tight ends?
Ryan: Absolutely! No one is a rookie quarterback’s best friend more than the tight end and Henry has been ultra reliable. I’ve made the mistake of sitting him a few times this season but I won’t be doing that again. The Patriots offense might not be the Greatest Show on Turf, but Drake Maye has them respectable and Henry is the best pass catcher they have. Considering what has happened to tight ends this year, you can roll with Henry.
Matt: The position is such a wasteland after Brock Bowers that yes, Hunter Henry is a must-start. With an 83% route participation and 25% target share last week, those numbers can't be ignored.
Rick: Hard to say as it depends who is on your roster. He is in the same range as many players who have had a lot of targets at TE. He has 18 in the last three games. Parkinson had 20 in three games before last week and then has two straight bad games. Young quarterbacks lean on their veteran tight ends (two things). Until Maye stops, send him up.
Jen: It's so hard to trust this New England offense, but you have to admit that they've looked a little different with Maye under center, particularly in regards to pushing the ball downfield and gaining offensive momentum. Another thing is also clear and noticeable -- he loves his tight ends. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for 14 targets last week versus the Jags. Maye also targeted Henry five times in his first start in Week 6, including in the red zone (Henry scored TD). I don't know how you bench the guy that currently leads the team in overall targets (19% share) and red zone targets (29% share). It just really sucks that he happens to play the Jets this week, who are very tough against the tight end this season. They've allowed just one TD to a tight end this season and kept all of them below 52 yards receiving. In any TE premium league, you have to start him. I would understand if you don't start him due to the match up in other leagues, but coming off a 9 target game and being a safety net for a rookie QB, I'm leaning towards recommending starting him every week.
Which Buccaneers receiver(s) do you like with the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin?
Rick: The waiver wire was full of requests for Jalen McMillen, but I think that Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are the winners for fantasy points. McMillan won’t be in the slot anymore and Shepard likely will be for those third down conversions and motion routes that Godwin makes work. Since Sterling is not Godwin, they will check to option two, the tight end or running back. With the running back by committee there is no way to count on Turner or Bucky. So, I am just avoiding this whole thing.
Matt: Short-term, I like Cade Otton. Longer term, if the Bucs are serious about a playoff run, they'll likely need to trade for a slot receiver. If the Raiders are serious sellers, I'd love to see Jakobi Meyers there. Otherwise, I'd lean with the veteran Sterling Shepherd. Sure hands and a big target in the slot could make Shepherd a PPR machine.
Jen: My money is on the tight end and the running backs. Though I think McMillan has potential and the Bucs seem to want him more involved, the guys who I'd want on my roster are Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rashaad White. Sterling Shepard is worth an add due to his past chemistry/playing time with Baker back in college, but he can't stay healthy. Shepard hasn't played a full season since 2018 and he's 31 years old. It isn't going to be easy to trust him, but there's a chance.......
Cade Otton and the running backs are much more reliable options and are likely to see the direct bump in usage right away. Otton received 10 targets last week, and had over 100+ yards receiving. Bucky Irving and Rashaad White are both heavily involved in this offense, including the passing game. Last week, White received 6 targets and Irving 3. In Week 5 when TB played Atlanta, White ran for 72 yards and Irving for 44 with no rushing touchdowns and minimal yardage via the air, so tempering expectations this week is important especially with the offense reeling from its losses. However, I do think their roles are solid and reliable. Otton caught 3 for 44 yards in Week 5 vs Atlanta the first time around, but I think he will receive more than 4 targets this go around.
Joe: I was high on Jalen McMillan before the start of the season and I believe he’ll establish himself as a very good fantasy WR before the season is over. An MCL injury and a crowded WR room that included Rome Odunze limited McMillan’s production in his junior year in Washington but his route running and playmaking abilities make him a receiver that can provide solid fantasy production the rest of the season.
Ryan: Give me Jalen McMillan! He was a guy that Leo touted on this site before the season started and he now has his opportunity with Chris Godwin gone for the year and Mike Evans out likely a minimum of four weeks. He might be inconsistent as a rookie, but he definitely has the biggest upside on the team. Sterling Shepard is aging and made of glass and Trey Palmer would be higher up the depth chart if the coaches thought more of him. Let’s swing for the fences with McMillan after he got eight targets last Monday when the two big receivers went down.
Are you benching all Panthers will Bryce Young back under center this week?
Jen: Unless you have Chubba Hubbard....yes. Even that makes me a little nervous. With Andy Dalton nursing a sprained thumb, Bryce Young takes back over as the starting QB for Carolina and it isn't good news for many of us. You can hope that Bryce takes this opportunity and earns the starting spot back, but the chance of this happening is unrealistic versus a tough Denver defense this week. Denver hasn't allowed more than one throwing TD from a QB all season, and allowed 200+ throwing yards to only two QB so far (Rodgers, Herbert). Diontae Johnson is ruled out for Sunday, so that leaves rookie Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, David Moore, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders. Sanders received 18 targets over the last three games, but showed little chemistry with Bryce Young in Weeks 1-2. My guess would be that they lean on the run game, dump offs, and use the tight end as a safety blanket, but I don't think they're going to generate enough offense to feed many fantasy points.
Matt: If you're benching Chuba, I'll send you a trade offer for him. Otherwise, yeah, I don't want anyone else, including Eddie Pinero.
Ryan: I know other number one picks have busted before, but I’m not quite ready to close the book on Young just yet. Sure, I thought he would be better coming into the season and he was dreadful again, but lots of quarterbacks start their careers really poorly. Troy Aikman was 1-15. Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions. Now, I know that Young will never be either of those guys, but he barely has a full season under his belt. Not having Adam Thielen or Diontae Johnson this week certainly hurts, but Ja’Tavion Sanders has impressed a little the last few weeks and he is a good athletic pass catcher. As I said with Hunter Henry a rookie QBs best friend is a tight end. While Young isn’t quite a rookie, he is still playing like one. If you are in a lurch, Sanderson could have a double digit fantasy day.
Rick: Yes, since I don’t have any Panthers on any of my 11 seasonal teams.